A new analysis of 79,347 US creator-video ad records by Billo found that purchase value fell in September of last year, while the number of running ads increased. The report shows that purchases also declined 5% in September, while ad volume reached its highest level of the three-month period.
The findings come as the National Retail Federation forecasts that families will spend $43.3 billion on K–12 back-to-school purchases in 2026, while college students and their families will spend $103.5 billion – a combined $146.8 billion.
“The brands that win during the back-to-school season are not necessarily those running the most ads. Ad volume increased in September even as purchase value and overall ROAS declined, meaning the highest number of ads was running after the strongest commercial month had passed,” said Donatas Smailys, CEO of Billo. “AI has made it easier to produce dozens of ad variations, but greater volume does not automatically produce better results. Timing and content that feels authentic still matter.”
According to NRF data, a third of shoppers had already begun looking for school supplies and gear by early June, the largest share since NRF began tracking the data in 2018. Gen Z and Millennial shoppers drove much of that early start. Billo’s data provides a closer look at how advertising activity and performance differed across the three-month period and between product categories.
During the 2025 back-to-school season, electronics saw the sharpest change in demand. Purchases nearly tripled in August, up 186% from July, driven by laptops, headphones, and dorm tech. Demand stayed high into September, holding about 150% above July levels.
Based on these findings, Donatas Smailys points to a few practical steps brands can take heading into this year’s back-to-school season:
- Start in July, stay consistent through August. Launch in July to catch early demand, hold spend through August.
- Treat September as a time to sustain, not launch. Fewer shoppers were actively looking or buying in September than in August. That makes it a better month to keep existing campaigns running than to start new ones.
- Adjust the timing based on your category. Different products saw demand build at different speeds. In electronics, for example, brands that launched early benefited from the first surge in demand. Apparel, on the other hand, performed best when brands participated throughout the season rather than concentrating spend in a single month.
- Use creator (UGC) content to move fast. As creator video ads can be produced and launched quickly, brands don’t need months of lead time to get their campaigns live, so they can actually fit into that early-July window instead of missing it.
See also: Beyond The Promotional Lift: What Early Summer Sales Reveal About Future Consumer Behavior
