According to new research from Circana, retail spending in February 2025 had some wobbly weeks but overall held steady as U.S. consumers demonstrated their uncertainty with weekly ups and downs in discretionary retail spending. In the combined four weeks ending March 1, 2025, overall retail sales demand was flat compared to the same time in 2024, with a 1% dollar growth.
“The paralyzing effects of economic uncertainty are starting to show up in short-term interruptions in discretionary consumer spending,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “On top of the existing concerns around inflation and the cost of goods, consumers are being inundated by headwinds that are creating pockets of behavior changes that have yet to impact the big picture.”
Additionally, in its recent Five in ’25 retail and consumer predictions, Circana identified the uncertainty that may be felt among U.S. Hispanic consumers this year as having the potential to create significant changes in their retail activity. Those changes have already begun to take shape, as U.S. Hispanic consumer spending declined at a greater rate than that of the rest of the consumer population in January.
Circana also reported that consumers with a household income of less than $50,000 are the ones feeling the effects of elevated prices the most, and that discomfort was reflected in a 12% decline in January spending. These consumer groups, as well as those in rural parts of the country, are starting to change their purchase behavior, and this will have an impact across both discretionary and nondiscretionary retail.
Spending is also slowing among consumers aged 55 and up, as well as among those in upper-income brackets, who have been critical to bolstering retail spending for the past few years. The spending shifts among these groups will create fragility in discretionary spending first, with effects that will ultimately be felt across all of retail.
“The long list of change factors currently at play, from inflation and tariffs to weather and politics, are creating the potential for a perfect storm at retail, and the consumer is at the center of it all,” added Cohen. “In order to weather this storm, every retailer and manufacturer must remain aware of the activity both inside and outside their product and consumer sweet spots, and be prepared to make adjustments that will both calm and compel the consumer.”
About Circana
Circana is a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. Through superior technology, advanced analytics, cross-industry data, and deep expertise, we provide clarity that helps almost 7,000 of the world’s leading brands and retailers take action and unlock business growth. We understand more about the complete consumer, the complete store, and the complete wallet, so our clients can go beyond the data to apply insights, ignite innovation, meet consumer demand, and outpace the competition. Learn more at www.circana.com.
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