Customers will be making their purchases earlier this year, with Black Friday still an important day. And not only do tariffs affect how shoppers behave this season… but so will the rise of GLP-1 drugs.
That’s according to the annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey, released earlier this month by research firm Circana.
We spoke with Marshal Cohen, Circana’s chief retail adviser, about the big takeaways from this year’s survey.
TWICE: So it looks like the big headline there is that people are starting their shopping earlier this year than last year.
Marshal Cohen (MC): Yeah, they definitely started earlier. There are definitely opportunities to start earlier. In years past, we’ve seen retailers offer up early options, but consumers didn’t bite. This year, they did bite. And for good reason, I guess. In some cases, they’re worried about prices going up. They’re worried about not having enough product to go around. In the last couple of years, whatever hot items there are, they tend to sell out pretty quickly. So, consumers, we started to think about, let’s get this thing moving earlier.
And the other thing is, they’re not buying other products as often. So, back-to-school was very late this year and very minimal. Halloween was very late this year. And so what’s happening is, consumers are basically saying, ‘all right, well, if I’m not going to buy other things, I might as well start buying those things for the holiday, and I’ll buy them early.
TWICE: So when it comes to the economic picture and the consumer confidence picture, there are always mixed numbers; some look good, some look bad. What effect do you think that’s all having on how shoppers are approaching the holidays this year?
MC: So this year, we’ve got a lot of headwinds. We’ve also got a lot of resilience from the consumer. Even with all the higher prices and all the tariff discussions, consumers have still been spending. And as we get closer and closer to the holiday, they’re gonna even spend more than they have. They’re gonna start to go out and borrow money. They’re gonna start to ramp up their credit card balances. They’re gonna start to buy with creative financing, where they can buy now, pay later.
So we’ve gone far enough into the year now, close to almost mid-November, and the consumer’s still holding on with spending. The resilience of the consumer, despite all of these headwinds, and despite the recent government closures and lack of pay, and all these other things that are on top of it. Just a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about tariff issues. Now those are forgotten because we’ve got other issues. Even with all of those, the consumer continues to show us that they’re going to spend through the year. I’m more worried about ’26 than I am about ’25.
TWICE: Why do you say that?
MC: I think once we get past [the holidays], the consumer will be less willing to spend beyond their means. Nobody wants to disappoint their kids or loved ones for the holidays.
TWICE: So I’m looking at the page in the survey findings, it says more consumers plan to purchase within tech, but they’re moderating their spend versus last year. It says for the top types of planned physical gifts, tech/electronics is number two in terms of percentage of [interested] respondents behind clothing/accessories, but it’s number one in terms of spend. Are those typical numbers for holidays?
MC: Yes. Tech over the last couple of years has closed the gap with apparel/clothing, and has continued to be a bigger dollar spend per person, just because of the nature of the price of the product.
TWICE: In terms of specific products or specific categories with tech, is there anything in particular that’s jumping out for this year?
MC: The big news, the tech side of the equation, is that headphones continue to rule. They just continue to… either people lose them, or people want upgrades, or people want to go to the next generation. So, headphones are number one for growth. Notebooks and iPads are also up there. So we’ve got tablets and notebooks that are doing really well, and that has a lot to do with price points and promotion.
You know TVs are usually a promotional item at holiday time, but we’re not necessarily gonna see that because you know, frankly, the purchase cycle of televisions has already come through, over the last couple of years. So it’s not like we’re in a replenishment mode for TVs.
And the other thing is, tech tends to have more innovation. Between tech and beauty, that’s a lot of time for the holiday. That’s a big driver for it. So anything new and exciting on the tech side of the equation is big. The other one to talk about from tech is fitness trackers and health and wellness monitors. All these things. There’s a whole movement- think of all the GLP-1 people with the injections… this is gonna be a really good gift to give to a lot of people. If 10 to 12 percent of people are on that weight loss regimen. It’s certainly gonna be a good opportunity for those product categories.
TWICE: So, and getting back to tariffs, one question I always ask about tariffs: Is the important thing the tariffs or is the important thing the uncertainty about the tariffs? How do you see shoppers looking at that? Do they think they’re afraid prices are going to go up more than they are now?
MC: The tariff number is not really impeding sales. What’s happening is the consumer is basically saying I know things are gonna cost more. I see it, I feel it, it’s around me, and food it’s around me, and clothing it’s around me in tech. It’s around me and beauty; they’re surrounded by price increases. They know it’s coming, they’re not shocked by it, their price tolerance right now is running at around 10 to 12 percent more particularly in tech products.
Tech has one unique advantage: if something’s new, a new price is established. It’s not like buying jeans that always have to be at a certain price or less, so that’s the difference innovation gives the ability to be able to charge more, and the consumer will decide whether it’s worth paying it or not, and in many cases, they do.
How high can a cell phone get? We’re getting close to $1,500, $1,700 for a cell phone. It’s crazy, but it’s such an important part of our lives that consumers are willing to do it.
See also: Circana Reports 88% Growth In Fitness Tracker Sales Revenue
