U.S. consumers are projected to spend over $1.34 trillion in retail sales during the 2025 holiday season, with at least 18% of that—nearly $305 billion—coming from e-commerce, according to Deloitte. But while consumers are gearing up for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, so are the criminals.
According to the newly released 2025 Package Theft Report by SafeWise, over 104 million packages were stolen in the U.S. this year. That’s $15 billion in consumer losses.
Meanwhile, the average value of stolen packages rose to $143. With the seasonal surge in home deliveries already underway, experts warn that porch piracy is likely to spike sharply throughout December.
Consumers Aren’t the Only Ones Paying the Price
Porch piracy is often framed as a personal loss, but it’s increasingly a business problem as well.
According to SafeWise, retailers and delivery providers are absorbing an estimated $22 billion in replacement shipments, customer support costs, and logistics disruptions due to package theft.
Additionally, a separate study from Capital One Shopping Research reports that 79% of stolen packages are refunded or replaced by the seller, 14% by the carrier, and 11% result in an insurance claim, often overlapping categories.
While these figures total over 100%, the report notes that many claims go unpaid due to deductibles exceeding the average stolen package value of $143. The financial burden has turned porch piracy from a customer service nuisance into a supply chain liability.
Surveillance Alone Isn’t Stopping the Surge
Many homeowners rely on doorbell cameras or motion sensors to monitor package deliveries, but surveillance alone is not enough. While smart home technology can capture theft as it happens, it often fails to prevent it. Law enforcement officials note that cameras can provide supporting evidence after the fact, but rarely serve as a strong enough deterrent from the crime itself.
To add insult to injury, a recent survey found that only 17% of victims report package theft, suggesting the true scale of porch piracy is far greater than reported statistics indicate.
Consumers need to stop thinking of package theft as random. It’s organized, repeatable, and growing more brazen every year, which is why prevention, not just documentation, is key.
Who’s Most at Risk?
Geography, population density, and home design all play a role in theft likelihood:
- Urban areas see higher theft volumes overall, especially where packages are delivered to multi-unit buildings or exposed front steps.
- Suburban households face heightened risk during daytime hours.
- Short-term rental hotspots like Hawaii and Florida are among the top 10 states for package theft by financial impact, according to the 2025 SafeWise Report. These areas face elevated theft risks from unattended deliveries at Airbnbs and vacation homes, particularly when packages arrive before guests do.
According to the Hawaii Department of Commerce & Consumer Affairs, over 60% of thefts occur during daylight hours, typically between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m.
What Can Be Done to Prevent Porch Piracy?
As delivery volume ramps up, experts recommend tracking packages closely, using app notifications, and specifying drop-off locations to minimize visibility. Some consumers even coordinate with neighbors for safe handoffs.
But these passive tactics may not be enough. A growing number of homeowners are turning to connected parcel lockers, a category of home security that prevents theft rather than just documenting it. Smart lockers offer digital passcode access, real-time delivery alerts, and tamper detection, giving consumers end-to-end control over package security from their phones.
While some communities use neighborhood apps to coordinate alerts or advocate for stricter laws, most of these approaches are reactive, not preventive. What’s gaining traction instead is a connected, digital-first solution — hardware that physically blocks theft and alerts you when deliveries arrive.
A Growing Cost for the Holidays
With Black Friday and Cyber Monday just weeks away, the warning is clear: the earlier you order, the sooner you should secure your deliveries. Whether it’s a $25 toy or a $500 household appliance, package theft doesn’t discriminate. For many, the term “porch pirate” conjures up a caricature, but the reality is far from harmless. The reality is these are organized criminals taking advantage of an opportunity.
While no single solution fits every delivery, as is the case for oversized items that require coordination, a secure parcel locker can eliminate theft for the majority of household deliveries. The only way to outsmart the perpetrators of this crime is to think ahead and lock down those holiday wins before someone else does.
