There’s a whole lotta shoppin’ goin’ on — at least online.
According to Adobe, consumers have so far spent a record $28.6 billion online this month (through Nov. 21), representing a 17.9 percent spike over last year, with each day clearing $1 billion or more in revenue.
The November results are in line with Adobe’s total holiday forecast of a 13.8 percent increase in online sales, to $107.4 billion. The busiest day: Cyber Monday, which will be the largest online shopping day in history with $6.6 billion in sales, the company projected, an increase of 16.5 percent from last year.
Black Friday will come in second, with $5 billion in sales, a rise of 16.4 percent, while Thanksgiving Day is expected to pull in $2.8 billion in sales, up 15 percent year over year.
The numbers are based on Adobe Sensei, an artificial intelligence and machine learning framework that’s assessing 80 percent of online transactions at the 100 largest U.S. e-tail sites.
“Consumers are conditioned to waiting for those key shopping moments, and this year is no exception,” said Mickey Mericle, Adobe’s marketing and insights VP. “We’re seeing significantly higher growth in online spend this year, even before the deepest discounts hit on Black Friday … and we’re predicting that we have more than twice the number of $2 billion shopping days this holiday season. That’s an incredible milestone.”
What are consumers spending all that moola on? Sensei cited Apple AirPods, Amazon Echo, PlayStation VR, Oculus Rift and Dell, HP, Lenovo and Acer laptops among the most popular electronics, and calls out “Super Mario Odyssey,” “Pokemon Sun/Moon,” Nintendo Switch, Xbox One X and PlayStation 4/4 Pro among the top-selling video game titles and consoles.
Among Sensei’s other findings:
Discounts: Pre-Thanksgiving deals are seeing an average savings of 6.6 percent for PCs and 12.7 percent for TVs. The sharpest discounts are expected to occur on Black Friday, with the largest price decreases going to TVs and tablets (down 24 percent) and appliances (down 18 percent). On Thanksgiving, shoppers can expect to find the best tech deals on PCs and video games/consoles, with prices down 16 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
Conversion Rates: Conversion rates across all web devices saw gains, with desktop showing double-digit growth (up 10.9 percent year over year, to 4.1 percent), followed by smartphones (up 9.7 percent, to 1.8 percent) and tablets (up 8.2 percent, to a 4 percent conversion rate).
Top Promotion Drivers: Search makes up the majority of the shares of sales (paid search at 22.2 percent and natural search at 22.3 percent), with direct traffic at 27.2 percent and email at 19.1 percent, although email had the strongest uptick with 10.8 percent growth year over year.
Consumer Mindset: Based on a companion survey of more than 1,100 U.S. consumers, most shoppers (52 percent) assume they will get the best online deals on Cyber Monday vs. Black Friday, when in fact Black Friday will offer the deepest discounts for many products. In addition, 61 percent of respondents anticipate being completely finished with their holiday shopping by Dec. 11, especially younger shoppers.
Adobe’s complete holiday report is available (where else?) online.