There’s a nip in the air, the kids are back at school, and stores are stacked with Halloween fare. Could Black Friday be far behind?
We think not. And as further evidence we present the season’s first product and sales predictions for Black Friday 2018, as provided by our friends at BestBlackFriday.com.
Poring over more than 200 ads from last year and thousands of tech and general merchandise products, the team behind the website, principals Phil Dengler and Eric Jones of Jones-Dengler Marketing, have come up with their forecast for the promotional season to come. Here are their top five predictions:
Black Friday promotions will start earlier than ever.
OK, that’s hardly a shocker, but some of the forecasted dates are. Dengler expects the first major ad to break Nov. 1, from Kohl’s, which will coincide with the first day of Amazon’s month-long Black Friday Countdown Sale.
Thanksgiving is definitely in play.
Forget that “We’re closed for Thanksgiving” stuff; the stuffing can wait. Most Black Friday sales will start on Thanksgiving and run overnight into Friday, meaning there’s really no longer an earliest store-opening time. What’s more, online doorbusters will begin on Monday of Thanksgiving week (Nov. 19), further blurring the role of Black Friday proper.
Online sales will grow by the mid-teens.
Specifically 16.7 percent on Thanksgiving, to $3.4 billion, and 15.3 percent on Black Friday, to $5.8 billion. The top three destinations: Amazon, Walmart.com and Target.com.
Watch: Black Friday Predictions
But Cyber Monday will blow them both away.
Dengler is projecting a $7.3 billion payday for online retailers (up 10 percent from last year), which would set a new e-commerce record for single-day sales.
They’ll practically be giving TVs away.
Again, hardly a shocker. But a 40-inch 4K TV for $125 does give one pause. Generally speaking, discounts across all product categories will average 30 to 35 percent at Walmart and 35 to 40 percent at Target and Amazon, the BestBlackFriday boys predict.