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Strategy Analystics Forecasts Aftermarket Navigation Gains


Despite strong gains in OEM-navigation
shipments, aftermarket in-dash navigation shipments
will continue to grow at double-digit percentage rates in
North America through 2018, a Strategy Analytics study

Shipments of portable navigation devices (PNDs), on
the other hand, will continue to shrink through 2018.

In aftermarket in-dash navigation, the study forecasts a
17.6 percent gain in 2012 shipments to 2.6 million units,
with 2012 OEM navigation shipments rising 20.1 percent
to 5.1 million. PND shipments, however, will fall 8.6 percent
to 10.7 million in 2012 following an even larger 2011
decline of 22.2 percent.

Beyond 2012, aftermarket shipments will rise at annual
rates ranging from 10.6 percent to 20.1 percent until trailing
off in 2018 to a 4.8 percent gain. OEM navigation will
rise during that time at rates ranging from 17.1 percent to
36.6 percent.

In dollars, aftermarket shipments will grow at low single-
digit rates because of price pressures caused by
competition from smartphone navigation and from rising
OEM penetration rates, Strategy Analytics said.

“Clearly PNDs, line fit [OEM] and aftermarket navigation
systems are under great pressure from mobile phonebased
navigation,” said analyst Roger Lanctot. “But
factory-fit solutions will compete with these alternative
navigation solutions with the use of superior integration
of vehicle sensors and safe smartphone connections.”

Smartphone navigation has already forced automakers
to bring lower cost solutions to the market, as Mazda has,
or simply enable smartphone-based or hybrid on-board/
off-board solutions, as Ford has, Lanctot said.

Aftermarket navigation will survive and grow in units despite
rising OEM penetration, aftermarket suppliers have
said, in part because OEM navigation systems are often
bundled with other options into a high-price
package that consumers might not want to
pay for. Marketers have also pointed out that
the features of OEM nav systems are often
behind the times, in some cases lacking
street-name announce or featuring graphics
of inferior quality to that of the latest PNDs.

As for dollar shipments, Strategy Analytics
said that worldwide, aftermarket shipments
will rise from $8.4 billion in 2010 to
$10.6 billion in 2018 for a compound annual
growth rate of 3 percent. OEM shipments
will rise from $20.6 billion to $37.2 billion
during that time for a compound annual
growth rate of 7.7 percent. PND shipments
will fall at a compound annual rate of 15
percent to $1.4 billion in 2018 from 2010’s
$5.2 billion.