Boston - Despite strong gains in OEM-navigation shipments, aftermarket in-dash navigation shipments will continue to grow at double-digit percentage rates in North America through 2018, a Strategy Analytics study contended.
Shipments of portable navigation devices (PNDs), on the other hand, will continue to shrink through 2018.
In aftermarket in-dash navigation, the study forecasts a 20 percent gain in 2012 shipments to 610,000 units, following a forecast 2011 gain of 10 percent to 508,000 shipments. OEM navigation shipments in 2012 will rise 20 percent to 5.1 million. PND shipments, however, will fall 8.6 percent to 10.7 million in 2012 following an even larger 2011 decline of 22.2 percent.
(The in-dash aftermarket statistics replace incorrect statistics supplied by Strategy Analytics for
Beyond 2012, aftermarket in-dash shipments will rise at annual rates ranging from 11 percent to 26 percent through 2018. OEM navigation will rise during that time at rates ranging from 17.1 percent to 36.6 percent.
In 2013, aftermarket unit shipments will grow 26 percent, followed by a 23 percent gain in 2014, 20 percent in 2015, 16 percent in 2016, 14 percent in 2017, and 11 percent in 2018, when unit shipments will reach 1.67 million. That number would be 229 percent greater than 2011 shipments.
In dollars, aftermarket shipments will grow at low single-digit rates because of price pressures caused by competition from smartphone navigation and from rising OEM penetration rates, Strategy Analytics said.
"Clearly PNDs, line-fit [OEM] and aftermarket navigation systems are under great pressure from mobile phone-based navigation," said analyst Roger Lanctot. "But factory-fit solutions will compete with these alternative navigation solutions with the use of superior integration of vehicle sensors and safe smartphone connections."
Smartphone navigation has already forced automakers to bring lower cost solutions to the market, as Mazda has, or simply enable smartphone-based or hybrid onboard/off-board solutions, as Ford has, Lanctot said.
Aftermarket navigation will survive and grow in units despite rising OEM penetration, aftermarket suppliers have said, in part because OEM navigation systems are often bundled with other options into a high-price package that consumers might not want to pay for. Marketers have also pointed out that the features of OEM nav systems are often behind the times, in some cases lacking street-name announce or featuring graphics of inferior quality to that of the latest PNDs.