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Strategy Analytics: Aftermarket Head Units Falling

BOSTON — Aftermarket head-unit sales in North America surged in units and dollars in 2012, but 2013 is not looking so good, Strategy Analytics forecasts show.

The research and consulting company also concluded that North American portable navigation device (PND) sales in units and dollars will slide faster in 2013 than they did in 2012.

In the head-unit market, the company found that factorylevel unit sales grew in 2012 by 14 percent to 5.47 million, but the segment is forecast to fall by 3.2 percent in 2013 to 5.3 million units.

Head-unit sales consist of in-dash CD, in-dash DVD and in-dash navigation. In 2015, unit sales of head units will fall to 4.92 million units for a 2011 to 2015 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3 percent, said analyst John Canali. In 2020, sales will slide further to 2.3 million units, shrinking the market to 43.4 percent of its 2013 size by unit volume.

In dollars, North American head-unit sales rose at the factory level in 2012 by 9.8 percent to $1.57 billion, but sales are forecast to fall in 2013 by 11.5 percent to $1.39 billion. Dollar sales in 2015 will fall to $1.17 billion for a CAGR of -4 percent from 2011 to 2015. In 2020, aftermarket head-unit sales will fall to only $431 million, shrinking market volume to 31 percent of its 2013 volume.

Although unit and dollar sales are falling in the overall head-unit category this year, one bright spot has been sales of DVD receivers. NPD statistics for the January through May period show retail-level in-dash DVD-receiver sales rising 27 percent in dollars and 34 percent in units. That followed 2012 DVD-receiver growth of 26 percent in dollars and 32 percent in units. 

In the PND market, factory-level unit and dollar sales fell at double-digit rates that will accelerate in 2013, Strategy Analytics forecast.

In 2012, unit PND sales fell 12.5 percent to 9.8 million, and they’re forecast to fall in 2013 by 20 percent to 7.8 million, Strategy Analytics said. In 2015, volume will shrink to 6.15 million units for a CAGR of -11 percent for the 2011 to 2015 period. In 2020, unit volume will hit 4.8 million, shrinking the market’s unit volume to 62 percent of 2013’s unit volume.

In dollars, PND sales fell 26.2 percent in 2012 to $959.8 million, and in 2013, they’re forecast to fall another 34.7 percent to $627 million. In 2015, sales will slide further to $378.3 million for a CAGR of -22 percent during the 2011 to 2015 period.

In 2020, North American PND dollar volume will fall to $205.5 million, which will be only a third of 2013 dollar volume.