Santa Clara, Calif. — Global TV demand is expected to be flat in 2013, after shipments of all TV types are expected to decline by more than 4 percent in 2012 to 237 million units, according to a new study from NPD DisplaySearch.
The market research firm’s “Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report” shows that despite a slower overall growth rate of shipments, the industry continues to show progress in the advancement of larger screen sizes and advanced display technologies like LED backlights and 3D.
Shipments of 50-inch and larger screen sizes are expected to rise 13 percent in 2013, compared with just 1 percent growth of 40 to 49 inches and a 2 percent decline in shipments of 40 inches and smaller sizes.
DisplaySearch said demand for smaller sizes will start to compete with TV viewing on the larger and higher-resolution displays found in mobile devices such as tablet PCs and smartphones.
At the same time, a large group of flat-panel TV adopters will be upgrading from 32-inch LCD TVs to 40-inch and larger sizes.
“Worldwide demand for TVs continues to face pressure from external factors, such as slowing economic growth, high unemployment rates, and the rising household penetration of flat-panel TVs,” said Paul Gagnon, NPD DisplaySearch North American TV research director. “At the same time, internal factors, such as slower cost reductions and a greater focus on profits at the expense of volume, are leading to a lower level of retail price erosion, which is also impacting demand.”
DisplaySearch said that in the long term, as the TV replacement cycle shifts from the flat-panel replacement of CRTs to flat-panel upgrades, there is potential for renewed growth, especially as new features become more affordable. LCD TV shipments will continue growing throughout the forecast while demand for CRT and plasma TVs declines.
Meanwhile, OLED TVs, which were expected to make a retail debut this year or early next year from Samsung and LG, have experienced a production setback, DisplaySearch said, while 4K Ultra High Definition (a.k.a. 4K) LCD TVs are now beginning to emerge.
Gagnon said, “At the recent IFA Berlin tradeshow, the competition between 4K by 2K LCD TVs and OLED TVs was a hot topic. While the likelihood of a 2012 launch of OLED TVs seemed to evaporate when mass production was delayed until at least 2013, many companies demonstrated 4K by 2K resolution LCD TVs that were already beginning production.”
NPD DisplaySearch has reduced the near term forecast for OLED TV shipments to just 500 in 2012 and 50K in 2013, but expects that large-scale mass production will enable the market to grow to around 9 million by 2016.
DisplaySearch said shipments of 4K LCD TVs are expected to grow from just more than 4,000 in 2012 to 154,000 in 2013, and around 5 million by 2016, mostly in 50-inch and larger sizes.
For more information, the report is available at (408) 418-1900 or [email protected].