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Sirius/XM Merger Odds, Momentum

Here’s something to watch as we approach mid-October: the Sirius/XM merger. Citi Investment Research seems to think the deal has a better than 60 percent chance of approval by the Feds.

I asked a well-placed industry source with no real ax to grind for his gut assessment and he said “I think the merger has a 75 percent chance of approval.” The more people you speak to the more you hear that momentum is moving towards a merger

Speculation is so rampant as we approach the merger deadline I think someone should have gone to Vegas early this year and started a betting line as to whether or not the deal would be approved. That’s one way satellite radio could have made some people a bundle.

If the merger is approved and drives the broadcasters, NAB and their political friends in and around the Washington D.C. beltway nuts Mel Karmazin deserves double any bonus he was supposed to get to nail down this deal.

Look at it this way: Between sweetheart campaign advertising deals given to broadcasters and tons of coverage of campaigns given to both political parties, both sides and have been partners (and in each other’s pockets) for years.

Karmazin, his team at Sirius, and XM will pull off the lobbying upset of the decade if they get approval to merge. As they say on radio and TV, stay tuned.