In early October, research firm IDC released its latest Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, which found that PC shipments worldwide grew 9.4 percent from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025. However, the North American market was a much different story, impacted by what IDC described as “US import tariffs shock and by macroeconomic uncertainties.”
On October 16, we spoke with Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, about those numbers, what they mean, and what to expect from the PC market for the rest of 2025.
TWICE: I guess the story was in the last quarter was global growth for PCs, but softer in North America, right?
Jean Philippe Bouchard (JPB): Yeah. So, it’s super interesting. I’ve been covering this for [about] 20 years. And the PC market is one of the most mature IT markets out there. We kind of know this. But the growth we’re seeing this year is actually really, really good. Mostly because it’s kind of a perfect storm. You have the kind of COVID install base that’s up for renewal right now. And you also have the Windows 10 end of service. And also AI PC to a lesser extent, but there’s there’s a lot of factors driving growth.
What we’re seeing in the U.S. versus the rest of the world is also fascinating. I’m an economist, and I love all the macro conditions that are happening. The tariffs, for instance, are a huge, huge shock to the normal trends in the US. So what we saw is that in Q1, the US grew by, I think if I remember correctly, 18 percent, which was way above the other regions, namely EMEA and AP.
But what we’ve seen in Q2 and Q3 is that AP and EMEA are growing double-digit, and the U.S. is flat to negative. And the reasons for that are that we had a huge influx of shipments. So basically, stockpiling. Inventory for PCs, just ahead of tariffs that came into place [in April.] So all the OEMs kind of imported units and systems in the US, and they’re still going through that inventory.
Now, the real kicker and what’s going to be really fun is the forecast for Q4. There are multiple scenarios of what’s going to happen in the US. Either we still have inventory on hand. Either we’re going to have a kind of problem with inventory. So basically, there are systems that are not going to be available on the shelves. Or we’re going to see the market pop in terms of shipments and imports. So that’s pretty much where we are. I think the flat to negative growth that we’re seeing in the US is not indicative of soft demand, but more so indicative of, I’d say, supply-chain and inventory, and distribution factors.
TWICE: Is the story about the tariffs, or is the story the uncertainty about the tariffs?
JPB: I think it’s both. I think it doesn’t have to be either/or.
I think it’s an “end” kind of story. The tariffs had a huge impact because, if you look at notebooks, for instance, pre-tariffs, over 90 percent of notebooks were manufactured in China. Tariffs are also very complex in the sense that there’s an exemption on [computer devices.] So notebook servers, like a bunch of things, are excluded from tariffs everywhere in the world, whether it’s manufactured in Vietnam, the Philippines, China, or Mexico, for instance.
But there are still two tariffs related to fentanyl that are attached to China. So there are two 10 percent tariffs that are still there. So essentially, everything that’s manufactured in China is still 20 percent tax. Margins on PCs are not super high. So that 20 percent is meaningful on this. This is why manufacturers kind of… stockpiled in the first half of the year. And as you know, you can’t move your supply or your production lines out of China on a dime; it takes preparation, those are billion-dollar kind of investments and problems, right? So it takes time.
The uncertainty is definitely having an impact, I think, on IT decision makers, in the sense that the macro conditions in the US are interesting. I think economists were calling for a recession. I think we’re kind of on a trend to avoid recession. But there’s still here’s still a lot of question marks. Inflation is still a big question mark on things. So I think that what we’re seeing in the US is we’re seeing more [IT decision makers] opt for that extended service for Microsoft on their install base. So that’s kind of delaying the transition to Windows 11 and, therefore, the kind of demand.
TWICE: It can be hard to keep track of, with tariffs, what gets threatened, what gets announced, what’s really happening. I remember there was talk of a carveout for Apple. I don’t know if that was just iPhones or if that affected other things as well. Where do things stand with that?
JPB: I think Apple is not exempt from any of this. So there’s no special dealing with Apple. So everyone is kind of impacted the same.
TWICE: So then, when it comes to the tariffs, are there any kind of maybe surprising individual things involving components? Or is it just all about the PCs themselves?
JPB: We could dig deeper into the chipset kind of discussion, and the strategic importance of chipsets, and where they’re manufactured, and the geopolitics of Taiwan and mainland China. But right now, the situation is that the demand is, is really, really solid.
Every chipset manufacturer, whether you’re AMD, Intel, or Nvidia, is kind of benefiting from this. What we’re seeing on a component part, though, is that there is a very strong price pressure, upward pressure on, for instance, memory, and other components, because the demand is too high. So that eventually will translate, I think, into system prices.
TWICE: So, looking at the chart, it’s part of your report, Lenovo is number one worldwide in shipments. Is that correct?
JPB: Yes.
TWICE: Has that been the case for a while? I know it’s usually them or HP.
JPB: Yeah, Lenovo has been at the top for a bit now. I believe in Q3… they have over 25 percent of the market.
TWICE: So just look at the North American market in general. I guess in terms of particular products. What’s rising? What’s falling? What’s the big story when it comes to that?
JPB: Well, notebooks are still very, very hot. This year, what we’ve seen is an influx of, or a kind of rebound of, the desktop market as well, more so than in the previous years. That could be tied to returning to the office. And could also be tied to lower prices.
So we’re seeing kind of an ingenious way from ITDM to be able to achieve the number of units that they need. So sometimes they’ll go on a desktop rather than a notebook. We’re seeing an increase in AI PC demand. So AI PCs are now, I think, while we didn’t release the number for Q3, but in Q2, AI PCs globally were representing roughly 11 percent of shipments. And that was up from 0.1 percent a year ago. I think it’s a function of consumers and enterprise kind of future proofing, what they’re asking, because the use cases for AI on PCs are still not well defined. And we believe they’re still not a driver for demand at this point.
TWICE: I guess it’s still a question what direction AI is going in.
JPB: AI is odd. It’s super trendy, but the thing is, there are ways to use AI without having to have an AI PC compatible or to have the compute power, like the 40-tops that you have on an AI PC.
TWICE: I know this report was about Q3, but with the holidays coming up, what are the trends you see heading into Q4 in terms of where demand is?
JPB: Like I said, Q4 is going to be very interesting to follow. We’re looking at the sell-through. The sell-through is actually very strong at the end of Q3, which indicates that Q4 could be a strong quarter. But like I said, in North America, we have big question marks about inventory levels and if we’re going to be able to sustain that demand in Q4.
The entire year, like since tariffs were announced, we were thinking that the consumer demand would kind of take a hit on this, given the uncertainty of the economic conditions. But so far, we haven’t seen any of this. The consumer demand is very, very strong.
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global market intelligence, data, and events provider for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight help IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their key business objectives.
See also:
