Print

EMail

Digital Impacts Analog Sales; DVD Players Hit 8.3M

By Greg Tarr On Jan 29 2001 - 8:00am

ARLINGTON, VA. - Continuing its explosive three-year pattern, the DVD category more than doubled factory unit sales volume in 2000 to help pace video hardware products, as reflected in the Consumer's Electronics Association's latest survey of key members issued at the CES.

Dollar volume estimates for the overall video segment grew for the third consecutive year, following two years of declines, as digital products including DVD players, digital televisions, personal video re-corders, digital still cameras and home satellite systems maintained a high level of consumer interest in sophisticated home theater components.

The growth rate for the video segment hit 15.2 percent on factory sales of $19.2 billion. One year ago, the association had forecast a mere 2.8 percent increase to $17.2 billion in factory dollars for the segment.

Staying the conservative course, CEA sees modest growth (5.9 percent) for 2001, when it projects total video hardware sales of $20.3 billion. Leaders in dollar volume growth are expected to include such new categories as personal video recorders (72.5 percent), digital TVs and displays (52.3 percent), DVD players (43.5 percent) and color LCD TV (11.6 percent).

The DVD video player category continues to astound industry watchers with its explosive sales growth. Unit sales topped the 102.8 percent growth mark, reaching 8.3 million players, while factory dollars climbed 53.1 percent over 1999. This came despite the fact that average retail tickets slid 24.4 percent from $270 to $204.

Projections for 2001 show the new PVR category rocketing to almost 2.9 million units and a 72.5 percent increase in factory dollars to $714 million. Average player price is expected to drop another 5.4 percent to $193 per recorder.

Digital televisions and displays are expected to climb from 648,429 last year to over 1.1 million units this year. In addition, 36,794 stand-alone set-top receivers were sold last year. Factory dollars for DTV displays are expected to climb 52.3 percent increase in factory dollars to $2.16 billion from $1.4 billion in 2000. Average set price is expected to drop 15.4 percent to $1,925.

Meanwhile, the impact of digital TV growth will be felt most on analog projection TVs, which are expected to slip 16.4 percent in unit sales to 1.2 million as factory dollars fall 21.4 percent to $1.5 billion. Average unit price will also drop, to $1,213

DVD unit volume is expected to climb to almost 12.5 million, on a 43.5 percent increase in factory dollars to $2.4 billion. Not surprisingly, the average player price is expected to drop another 5.4 percent to $193 per player.

Analog direct-view sales are also targeted to take a 0.5 percent nick in unit sales to 23.9 million units, as factory value drops 2.6 percent to $5.9 billion.

Camcorder sales will climb 10.1 percent to 6.2 million units, as factory dollars rise 6.1 percent to $3.3 billion. Average unit pricing, however, is expected to dip 3.6 percent to $528, after riding a rising price trend with the acceptance of digital models in recent years.

The analog TV/VCR subcategory rose 13.4 percent to 5 million units last year, and 3.3 percent growth in dollar volume to $981 million. CEA anticipates sales growing 5.4 percent to 5.2 million units, while factory dollars will nudge up 0.1 percent to $982 million this year.

Industry sales of direct-to-home satellite systems climbed 17.2 percent in units and 15.2 percent in factory dollars, installations of new DBS systems outstripped the slow death of the big-dish C-band business. This year CEA sees satellite installations climbing 5 percent in units and 2 percent in factory dollars, as the category ascends past the 4.4 million unit level for the year.

Another growth category was the set-top Internet device, which grew 16.7 percent to reach 1.4 million units in 2000. Factory dollars topped $192 million in the period. This year CEA forecasts sales growing nearly 17.9 percent to 1.65 million units on $210 million in factory dollars.

Finally, the VCR deck category continued its resurgence, as consumers continued to realize the incredible value it offered at prices never contemplated before. In 2000, unit sales increased 5.2 percent, as factory dollar volume decreased 18.8 percent to $1.89 billion. Stereo models continue to move beyond mono units (with sales of 12 million units) compared with mono (11.9 million). Average deck pricing dropped 19.4 percent to $79.

For 2001, CEA sees unit volume declining, with deck sales down 10 percent, as factory value dips 16.6 percent and average deck pricing drops 7.6 percent to $73. Stereo model sales are expected to pull away from mono models, with HiFi deck sales growing 1.4 percent as unit volume dips 21.5 percent for mono models. Factory value for the two segments will dip 6.4 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively.

CEA 1999-2001 Video Hardware Sales Outlook / Units in 1,000s; $ value in millions

	1999 Actual Unit Sales	Factory $ Value	Average $ Price	2000 Estimate Unit Sales	Factory $ Value	Average $ Price	2001 Forecast Unit Sales	Factory $ Value	Average $ Price
Total TV ⁽¹⁾	29,188	8,785	301	30,510	8,943	293	30,602	8,377	274
Total Color	28,868	8,765	304	30,245	8,928	295	30,401	8,367	275
Direct View Color	27,636	7,133	258	28,785	7,044	245	29,181	6,886	236
Color Only	23,218	6,119	267	23,776	6,063	255	23,901	5,904	247
TV/VCR Combos	4,418	1,014	230	5,009	981	196	5,280	982	186
Projection TV	1,232	1,632	1,325	1,460	1,884	1,291	1,220	1,481	1,213
Monochrome TV	320	20	63	265	15	55	201	10	49
LCD TV, color	367	36	99	425	43	100	475	48	100
LCD TV, mono.	465	25	54	425	21	50	319	15	48
Digital TVs & displays	121	295	2,433	648⁽³⁾	1,422⁽³⁾	2,275⁽³⁾	1,125	2,166	1,925
Total VCR ⁽²⁾	27,227	3,347	123	29,014	2,875	99	26,885	2,561	95
Decks	22,809	2,333	102	24,005	1,894	79	21,605	1,579	73
Stereo	11,538	1,370	119	12,055	1,111	92	12,224	1,040	85
Non-stereo	11,271	963	85	11,950	783	66	9,381	539	57
Camcorders	4,790	2,448	511	5,702	3,123	548	6,276	3,313	528
PVRs	100	46	459	1,440	414	288	2,857	714	250
Videocassette players	180	15	79	100	15	70	75	4	55
Videodisc players	4,079	1,102	270	8,261	1,686	204	12,502	2,416	193
DVD	4,072	1,099	270	8,258	1,683	204	12,500	2,415	193
Laserdisc	7	3	504	3	3	490	2	1	470
Home satellite systems	3,625	957	264	4,250	1,102	259	4,463	1,124	252
Set-top Internet boxes	1,200	192	160	1,400	192	145	1,651	210	130
Digital still cameras	2,112	1,207	571	4,716	2,311	490	6,399	2,913	455
(1) Analog TVs only	(2) Includes TV/VCR combinations	(3) Actual numbers for 2000
Source: CEA	cTWICE 2001