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Digital Impacts Analog Sales; DVD Players Hit 8.3M

1/29/2001 02:00:00 AM Eastern

ARLINGTON, VA. - Continuing its explosive three-year pattern, the DVD category more than doubled factory unit sales volume in 2000 to help pace video hardware products, as reflected in the Consumer's Electronics Association's latest survey of key members issued at the CES.

Dollar volume estimates for the overall video segment grew for the third consecutive year, following two years of declines, as digital products including DVD players, digital televisions, personal video re-corders, digital still cameras and home satellite systems maintained a high level of consumer interest in sophisticated home theater components.

The growth rate for the video segment hit 15.2 percent on factory sales of $19.2 billion. One year ago, the association had forecast a mere 2.8 percent increase to $17.2 billion in factory dollars for the segment.

Staying the conservative course, CEA sees modest growth (5.9 percent) for 2001, when it projects total video hardware sales of $20.3 billion. Leaders in dollar volume growth are expected to include such new categories as personal video recorders (72.5 percent), digital TVs and displays (52.3 percent), DVD players (43.5 percent) and color LCD TV (11.6 percent).

The DVD video player category continues to astound industry watchers with its explosive sales growth. Unit sales topped the 102.8 percent growth mark, reaching 8.3 million players, while factory dollars climbed 53.1 percent over 1999. This came despite the fact that average retail tickets slid 24.4 percent from $270 to $204.

Projections for 2001 show the new PVR category rocketing to almost 2.9 million units and a 72.5 percent increase in factory dollars to $714 million. Average player price is expected to drop another 5.4 percent to $193 per recorder.

Digital televisions and displays are expected to climb from 648,429 last year to over 1.1 million units this year. In addition, 36,794 stand-alone set-top receivers were sold last year. Factory dollars for DTV displays are expected to climb 52.3 percent increase in factory dollars to $2.16 billion from $1.4 billion in 2000. Average set price is expected to drop 15.4 percent to $1,925.

Meanwhile, the impact of digital TV growth will be felt most on analog projection TVs, which are expected to slip 16.4 percent in unit sales to 1.2 million as factory dollars fall 21.4 percent to $1.5 billion. Average unit price will also drop, to $1,213

DVD unit volume is expected to climb to almost 12.5 million, on a 43.5 percent increase in factory dollars to $2.4 billion. Not surprisingly, the average player price is expected to drop another 5.4 percent to $193 per player.

Analog direct-view sales are also targeted to take a 0.5 percent nick in unit sales to 23.9 million units, as factory value drops 2.6 percent to $5.9 billion.

Camcorder sales will climb 10.1 percent to 6.2 million units, as factory dollars rise 6.1 percent to $3.3 billion. Average unit pricing, however, is expected to dip 3.6 percent to $528, after riding a rising price trend with the acceptance of digital models in recent years.

The analog TV/VCR subcategory rose 13.4 percent to 5 million units last year, and 3.3 percent growth in dollar volume to $981 million. CEA anticipates sales growing 5.4 percent to 5.2 million units, while factory dollars will nudge up 0.1 percent to $982 million this year.

Industry sales of direct-to-home satellite systems climbed 17.2 percent in units and 15.2 percent in factory dollars, installations of new DBS systems outstripped the slow death of the big-dish C-band business. This year CEA sees satellite installations climbing 5 percent in units and 2 percent in factory dollars, as the category ascends past the 4.4 million unit level for the year.

Another growth category was the set-top Internet device, which grew 16.7 percent to reach 1.4 million units in 2000. Factory dollars topped $192 million in the period. This year CEA forecasts sales growing nearly 17.9 percent to 1.65 million units on $210 million in factory dollars.

Finally, the VCR deck category continued its resurgence, as consumers continued to realize the incredible value it offered at prices never contemplated before. In 2000, unit sales increased 5.2 percent, as factory dollar volume decreased 18.8 percent to $1.89 billion. Stereo models continue to move beyond mono units (with sales of 12 million units) compared with mono (11.9 million). Average deck pricing dropped 19.4 percent to $79.

For 2001, CEA sees unit volume declining, with deck sales down 10 percent, as factory value dips 16.6 percent and average deck pricing drops 7.6 percent to $73. Stereo model sales are expected to pull away from mono models, with HiFi deck sales growing 1.4 percent as unit volume dips 21.5 percent for mono models. Factory value for the two segments will dip 6.4 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively.


CEA 1999-2001 Video Hardware Sales Outlook / Units in 1,000s; $ value in millions


1999 Actual Unit Sales

Factory $ Value

Average $ Price

2000 Estimate Unit Sales

Factory $ Value

Average $ Price

2001 Forecast Unit Sales

Factory $ Value

Average $ Price


Total TV
(1)

29,188

8,785

301

30,510

8,943

293

30,602

8,377

274

Total Color

28,868

8,765

304

30,245

8,928

295

30,401

8,367

275

Direct View Color

27,636

7,133

258

28,785

7,044

245

29,181

6,886

236

Color Only

23,218

6,119

267

23,776

6,063

255

23,901

5,904

247

TV/VCR Combos

4,418

1,014

230

5,009

981

196

5,280

982

186

Projection TV

1,232

1,632

1,325

1,460

1,884

1,291

1,220

1,481

1,213

Monochrome TV

320

20

63

265

15

55

201

10

49

LCD TV, color

367

36

99

425

43

100

475

48

100

LCD TV, mono.

465

25

54

425

21

50

319

15

48


Digital TVs & displays

121

295

2,433

648(3)

1,422(3)

2,275(3)

1,125

2,166

1,925


Total VCR
(2)

27,227

3,347

123

29,014

2,875

99

26,885

2,561

95

Decks

22,809

2,333

102

24,005

1,894

79

21,605

1,579

73

Stereo

11,538

1,370

119

12,055

1,111

92

12,224

1,040

85

Non-stereo

11,271

963

85

11,950

783

66

9,381

539

57

Camcorders

4,790

2,448

511

5,702

3,123

548

6,276

3,313

528


PVRs

100

46

459

1,440

414

288

2,857

714

250


Videocassette players

180

15

79

100

15

70

75

4

55


Videodisc players

4,079

1,102

270

8,261

1,686

204

12,502

2,416

193

DVD

4,072

1,099

270

8,258

1,683

204

12,500

2,415

193

Laserdisc

7

3

504

3

3

490

2

1

470


Home satellite systems

3,625

957

264

4,250

1,102

259

4,463

1,124

252


Set-top Internet boxes

1,200

192

160

1,400

192

145

1,651

210

130


Digital still cameras

2,112

1,207

571

4,716

2,311

490

6,399

2,913

455

(1) Analog TVs only

(2) Includes TV/VCR combinations

(3) Actual numbers for 2000

Source: CEA

cTWICE 2001



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