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CEA Issues Upbeat Forecasts For 2007-08

9/10/2007 02:41:00 PM Eastern

Arlington, Va. — New sales and forecast figures from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) show that 2006 was a modestly better sales year than estimated in the original data the association released at International CES in January.

 CEA also upwardly revised its forecast for this year and gave the first look at what it expects to be record industry sales for 2008.

CEA put its final sales total for the value of most industry product sales to dealers last year at a record $148.1 billion, up 14.9 percent from 2005, and a moderate improvement on the 13.1 percent growth it estimated as the year ended. For this year, it expects sales to be up 8.2 percent to a solid $160.3 billion, as opposed to the prediction of a 6.5 percent rise to $155.2 billion it was looking for in January. As for 2008, CEA’s forecast is for a more modest 6.1 percent rise in overall industry volume to nearly $171 billion.

The figures are compiled by CEA’s marketing services department from actual sales and sales estimates provided by reporting members. It should be noted that the sales gains are moderated by the sharply falling demand for traditional analog products and the actual and anticipated slippage in the pricing of new digital products.

For unexplained reasons, CEA has departed from its long-standing practice of making by-product sales and outlook figures available for publication, as shown in the accompanying table. It instead has withheld detailed data in favor of, for the most part, offering results for groups of similar products.

Compiling CEA’s figures to match the revised master product category roster utilized by CEA for the first time at the start of the year, indicates that consumer electronics enhancement products, a group that includes all accessories, plus blank media and batteries, was the industry’s growth leader last year, as sales soared by 29 percent to just over $19 billion from the 14.9 billion of 2005. But that growth is expected to be a more moderate 8.8 percent this year to just under $21 billion, and increase of 5.8 percent in 2008, to just under $22.1 billion.

The industry’s largest category, in-home technologies, which covers all home-use A/V, communications and computer products, had an indicated sales gain of 7.6 percent last year to $72.2 billion, and is looked to for a rise of about 6.4 percent to some $76.8 billion in 2007. Due in part to the anticipated all-but-vanished sales of analog video equipment and the continued decline in dollars generated by traditional analog hi-fi systems, the sales gain for 2008 is seen as being held down to just over 4 percent, with volume coming in at slightly over $80 billion, including the first volume sales to consumers of digital-to-analog TV broadcast converters.

In-vehicle technologies, getting a major boost from growing aftermarket demand for satellite radio, mobile video and navigation equipment, was seen with a solid 25 percent volume increase in 2006 to almost $9.9 billion. But likely because more new cars will come with advanced technology products installed, growth is expected to be held to just under 14 percent this year to $11.2 billion, and rise by just over 12 percent in 2008 to about $12.6 billion.

The industry’s remaining category, anywhere technologies, housing digital cameras, camcorders, portable audio, portable communications and electronic gaming products, is estimated to have had a sales gain of 21 percent to just over $47 billion last year. The outlook for 2007 is for a rise of nearly 9.5 percent to $51.6 billion, and a 7.7 percent gain to $55.6 billion in 2008.



    CEA 2006-08 Sales And Outlook
     (Units in 1,000's, $ value in millions)
 
2006 Actual 2007 Estimate
Unit Factory Average Unit Factory Average
Sales $ Value $ Price Sales $ Value $ Price
           
Total TVs & Displays (1) 34,408 24,726 719   31,862 26,049 818
 Total Digital Color 23,504 23,380 995   30,462 25,907 850
 Total Analog 10,904 1,346 123   1,400 142 102
Total Video Components (2) 49,030 4,611 94 51,791 5,019 97
 Total Settop Boxes (3) 25,835 2,273 88 29,166 2,597 89
Total Home Audio (4) 17,286 2,794 162 16,367 2,737 167
Total Home Info. and Security (5) 69,927 37,606 538   73,553 40,532 551
 Personal Computers 24,415 19,275 789   27,345 21,569 789
Total Home Communications (6) 72,841 2,491 34   70,271 2,507 36
Total Auto A/V Products (7) -- 8,496 --   -- 9,184 --
Total Auto Info. & Security (8) -- 1,354 --   -- 2,035 --
Total Digital Imaging (9) 39,717 9,157 231   42,084 8,851 210
Total Portable Entertainment (10) 59,558 6,722 113 62,113 6,706 108
 MP3 Players 38,124 5,559 146 41,490 5,400 130
Total Electronic Games (11) -- 12,875 -- -- 15,360 --
Total Portable Communications (12) 138,749 18,469 133 148,275 20,728 140
Total Accessories 282,952 7,459 26   317,151 8,568 27
Primary Batteries -- 6,155 -- -- 6,421 --
Total Blank Media -- 5,567 -- -- 5,874 --
___________________
 
 (1) All digital & analog TVs and displays.
 (2) Component VCRs, DVDs and set-top boxes.
 (3) DVRs, DBS & MSO receivers, digital midea adaptors and IPTV.
 (4) Compact,rack & theater-in-a-box systems and radios.
 (5) PCs, peripherals and sofware, typwriters & word processors.
 (6) Phones, answerers, faxes and caller ID devices.
 (7) Aftermarket & OEM autosound, video, satelllite radios.
 (8) Radar, aftermarket security and navigation.
 (9) Camcorders, cameras, picture frames.
 (10) MP3 players and speaker decks, tape recorders & players, headset audio and CD players. 
 (11) Hardware & software.
 (12) Cell & smart phones, FRS devices and pagers.
Source: CEA Market Research               c TWICE