Framingham, Mass. - International Data Corp. has downgraded its U.S. PC shipment forecast for 2001 and now expects the category to decline 6.3 percent instead of posting a marginal 2.2 percent increase.
IDC's Roger Kay, director of client computing, based this revision on the fact that U.S. PC sales will drop about 17 percent based on the presumption that the economy will remain at its current low level of activity. In addition, the sales fall off will not be helped by the normal holiday selling season boost the category usually experiences. The consumer spending slowdown is expected to spill over into the commercial computer side of the business later this year, Kay said, with sales in this area remaining only flat.
IDC's long term forecast is brighter. The firm expects PC shipments to be on the plus side in 2002 when 47.3 million PCs are expected to ship, up 4.6 percent over 2001. Double-digit growth is expected to return in 2003 when an anticipated 54.1 million units ship, a 14.2 percent jump over 2002. For 2004 and 2005 the category will settle back down with growth expected to hover between 7.5 percent and 4.5 percent.
Worldwide shipments are expected to remain positive if a little slower than originally expected. IDC's revised worldwide figures see shipments increasing 5.8 percent for 2001, down from the originally anticipated 10.3 percent with the total units shipped hitting 138.9 million. The worldwide shipment figure will remain in the double range from 2002 until 2004 when a slight fall out is expected. In 2005 IDC foresees 215.5 million PCs being shipped worldwide.