CEA Predicts Home Phone Sales To Rise 2.6 Percent

By Joseph Palenchar On Jan 29 2001 - 8:00am

ARLINGTON, VA. -Factory-level sales of residential and SOHO land-line phones and related devices will rise 2.6 percent to $3.5 billion in 2001 following a no-growth 2000, the Consumer Electronics Association projects.

All land-line categories, except for corded phones and stand-alone caller ID boxes, will post dollar and unit gains in 2001, CEA said. Both of these segments will post slight unit gains but a slight dollar decline.

The other land-line categories included in the CEA's forecast are cordless phones, telephone answering devices (TADs), and integrated phone/TADs.

In one key projection, CEA expects dollar sales of cordless phones (excluding models with integrated answerers) to rise 4.4 percent in 2001 after falling 7.7 percent in 2000.

In other communications categories, CEA projects:

• A 15.9 percent gain to $3.74 billion in factory-level sales of wireless phones sold through consumer channels. Growth in 2000 was 15 percent.

• A slowing growth rate in sales of pagers through consumer channels. CEA projects a 6.7 percent gain in 2001 to $800 million, compared with an estimated 13.6 percent in 2000.

• And another year of double-digit growth in FRS (family radio service) devices. Sales will jump 25.1 percent to $539 million, compared with an estimated 40.8 percent jump in 2000.

Here are the details:

Land-line phones: Combined sales of corded and cordless phones (excluding integrated phones/TADs) will grow 2.8 percent to $2.28 billion in 2001, following an estimated 3.1 percent decline in 2000.

Broken out separately, cordless dollar sales will rise, and corded sales will fall, reversing last year's performances. In 2001, CEA expects cordless dollar growth of 4.4 percent to $1.74 billion on a 5.4 percent unit gain to 45.7 million.

The average wholesale price is expected to be stable at $38. In 2000, in contrast, cordless dollar sales fell 7.7 percent despite a 9.3 percent unit gain to 43.4 million. The dollar drop was attributed to a 17.4 percent decline in average pricing to $38.

Corded sales in 2001 are projected to decline 2.2 percent to $539 million on a 2.1 percent unit-sale gain to 32.4 million. In contrast, last year's dollar sales were estimated to rise 14.1 percent to $551 million because a 21.4 percent increase in the average wholesale to $17 more than offset a 7.9 percent unit-sales decline to 31.7 million.

TADs, integrated phone/ TADs: Unit and dollar sales in-creased in 2000 and will increase again in 2001, when a 6.7 percent unit-sales gain to 24.6 million will make up for a 2.1 percent average-price decline (to $47) to lift dollar volume by 2.9 percent to $1.14 billion.

Last year, unit sales rose 9.9 percent to 23 million, and the average wholesale fell 4 percent to $48, yielding a 6.3 percent dollar gain to $1.11 billion.

Caller ID boxes: Unit sales will rise 2.7 percent to 6.4 million in 2001, but a $1 drop in the average wholesale price to $10 will drive down dollar volume by 8.7 percent to $63 million.

FRS radios: In terms of unit sales, this surging category will be about half the size of the consumer-channel wireless-phone market in 2001, CEA projects.

Unit sales will rise 50.7 percent to 11 million, but with a projected price decline of 16.9 percent to $49, dollar volume will rise more slowly: 25.1 percent to $539 million.

In 2000, unit and dollar growth were higher: 62.2 percent to 7.3 million and 40.8 percent to $431 million. The average price fell 13.2 percent to $59.

Wireless phones, pagers: Dollar sales of wireless phones to retailers will rise 15.9 percent in 2001 to $3.74 billion on an 18 percent unit-sales gain to 22.3 million and a 1.8 percent decline in the average wholesale to $168.

Last year, unit sales were up 21 percent to 18.9 million, dollar sales were up 15 percent to $3.23 billion, and average prices fell 5 percent to $171.

Factory-level pager sales will rise 6.7 percent to $800 million, compared with a 13.6 percent gain in 2000, CEA said. Unit volume was not estimated.

* Sales through consumer channels.

** Includes integrated phone/answerers.

Source: CEAcTWICE 2001