NEW YORK –
Growth rates in global
smartphone and tablet shipments will
slow in 2012 and 2013 but will nonetheless
post strong double-digit gains, with
the two top smartphone suppliers — Apple
and Samsung — gaining smartphone
share but with Apple losing tablet share,
Canaccord Genuity forecasts.
The market research and investmentbanking
company projects smartphone
unit shipments will rise in 2012 by 38.5
percent to 675 million and by 34.5 percent
in 2013 to 907.6 million following
2011’s 64.3 percent gain and 2010’s
72.1 percent gain.
Because of declining feature-phone
shipments, however, global shipments of
all cellphones will rise only 3.4 percent
in 2011 and 2012 following 2011’s 11.9
percent gain to 1.61 billion.
In the tablet market, Canaccord Genuity
forecast 2012 global unit shipment
growth of 75.2 percent to 112.5 million
following 2011 growth of 255 percent to
64.2 million. In 2013, percentage growth
will slow again to 47.8 percent to bring shipments to 166.3 million.
In tablets, Apple lost share in 2011 and will continue
to do so in 2012 and 2013 while remaining the market
leader, Canaccord said. Both Apple and Samsung
lost tablet share to Amazon’s Kindle Fire in 2011, when
Amazon took the No. 2 spot in worldwide tablet share at
9.3 percent. Amazon will stay in second place in 2012
with a forecast 15.8 percent share. Samsung will also
gain slight share in 2012 but will remain in third place,
Canaccord said.
Despite Amazon’s gain, Canaccord contended that
Amazon’s Kindle “did not adversely impact iPad sales
but more likely had a greater impact on e-reader sales.”
In smartphones, the No. 1 and 2 suppliers – Samsung
and Apple, in that order – will both gain unit share in
2012, with Samsung remaining on top in 2012 with 26.3
percent share compared to Apple’s 22 percent, Canaccord
said. Everyone else but Sony, Huawei and ZTE will
lose share, and the shares of those three suppliers will
remain in the low single digits.
“OEMs such as Huawei and ZTE have taken advantage
of growing smartphone sales in emerging markets,”
the company noted. The two companies have also targeted
the U.S. for smartphone growth.
In the short term, Canaccord said it expects high-end
smartphones launched at the Mobile World Congress
from Feb. 27 to March 1 will not ship until the second
quarter because “many OEMs are delaying launches of
high-end smartphone products rather than compete with
the record-setting iPhone 4S.” The time frame will be before
consumers become aware of a potential iPhone 5
launch in mid-2012, Canaccord added.
Among smartphone operating systems, Android will
remain the dominant OS in 2012 and 2013, capturing
56.8 percent smartphone-shipment share in 2012 and
57.4 percent in 2013, the company said. Apple’s iOS will
continue to gain share, but only slightly, with Apple share rising from 19.1 percent in 2011 to 22 percent in 2012 and
22.6 percent in 2013. Windows Mobile Phone will also
gain share, having risen 4.7 percent in 2011 and forecast
to rise to 9.4 percent in 2012 and 12.8 percent in 2013.
RIM’s share fell in 2011 and will continue to do so in 2012
and 2013.
