3D TV Is Not The HDTV Rollout
To paraphrase Bob Perry, executive VP of Panasonic, the rollout of 3D TV isn’t like debut of HDTV.
I would add: not by a long shot.
Why? There is more cooperation between the various industries involved — CE, broadcasting, cable, satellite and various parts of the content community.
That was evident by the diverse sellout crowd that gathered to hear Perry and many other leading executives at yesterday’s 3DTV2010 event here in New York. It was presented by TWICE and fellow publications from parent company NewBay Media: Broadcasting & Cable, Digital Video, Multichannel News, TV Technology and Videography; and had executives representing all of those industries in the same room at the Roosevelt Hotel.
While there are still standards issues to be resolved on the broadcast and production side, and the whole issue of incompatible 3D glasses, among others, all the industries learned from the long road to the DTV transition that if they work together and do this right, consumers will buy and their companies will reap the benefits.
The stumbling blocks the new technology faces are threefold, according to NPD Group’s industry analysis executive director Ross Rubin: the glasses (not universal, too pricey, easy to break, etc.); perceived high premiums for 3D TVs; and lack of content.
I’ll take the last one first: content will come and probably more quickly than HD programming, based on what everyone learned in the HD rollout.
3D TV pricing vs. 2D TV is a concern, especially a year after many bought their first HDTV due to the transition and the effects of the recession. But 3D TV is being positioned as the best HDTV you can buy and, down the road, as all of you know, what gets introduced as new technology one year gets improved features the next… and at a much lower price.
Finally, about those glasses, the point was made yesterday that when you ask consumers about wearing glasses to watch 3D at home they say no. But when you poll those same consumers after they seen a 3D movie they like, most say, “well, I’ll wear glasses to watch this movie again.” Universal glasses will come sooner rather than later, but I don’t have any hope that your buddy or your mother-in-law doesn’t sit on a pair and break them.
But the key is consumer education and demonstrations at retail. Isn’t that always the case?
That’s what Mike Vitelli, Americas president of Best Buy, Perry, Mike Fasulo, chief marketing officer and executive VP of Sony, and Tom Galanis, operations VP of Sixth Avenue Electronics, all said.
“No one wants a bad in-store experience,” said Fasulo, as he reminded the audience that Sony Stores have held 1.6 million consumer demonstrations on 3D TV since January and shipments to its retail base begins soon. “If we don’t do it right, we won’t eat the fruits of opportunity,” he added.
Now I’m not saying this is an easy proposition - I’ve seen demos this year in some stores would make these guys just shake their heads - but unlike 1997, when the first HDTV was introduced, consumers know more about TVs and more about adapting to new technology than ever before.
If the price is right and the programs are available, the acceptance of 3D TV will be a lot faster than anyone at expects.
Missing the mark commented:
3-D TV will not expand as rapidly as the industy hopes as content is extremely limited. The FCC mentioned there is limited spectrum and broadcasting in 3D content will not be mainstream for many, many years to come.
In addition, until 3D without active glasses are introduced, eye glass wearers, will be excluded from the target audience.
While manufacturers are hoping for greater margins and increased sales, it is wishful
thinking. Unless and until a non-glasses content and set becomes mainstream, 3-D
will be a small segmented market.
Rex Halverson commented:
Based on the initial interest and sell through here in Australia, I'd say 3D panel acceptance will not require 5 -10 years to experience full fruition. Retailers here are highlighting their 3D displays, doing demonstrations readily and positioning the product as an excellent 2D choice with a bonus of 3D capability - and are completely sold out.
One retailer, Harvey Norman, is sponsoring 3D broadcasting of sports programming to assist in market development as well.
This is an adoption of a new, but backwards compatible technology and will be more like any other higher end feature transition.
Unlike HDTV you are not rendering previous panels and software useless. So it doesn't have the 'must buy' element as Phil pointed out (by the way the faster changeover in Asia and Europe had a lot to do with the lower base of product and the faster political process of choosing a standard etc.).
On the other hand it is a very demonstrable feature that clearly enhances the panel's value. As choice ramps up and price points ramp down the adoption should be quite strong.
Ranman53 commented:
I was in Best Buy last week to see a demonstration and mentioned my desire to purchase one but the salesman would not give me the time of day. I went to the store during a slow time of day. I waited 45 minutes and not one person would assist me. Put this prodiuct in specialty stores if you want to make this rollout successful.
Phil Rutter commented:
There's no doubt that lots of people in the industry are hell bent on making 3D TV work. But to draw comparisons to HD misses a key point - the demise of the CRT. The sales of HD Ready TVs wasn't down to their HD ability - it was down to the fact that flat screens (of whatever sort) were the only things in the shops - certainly in Europe, and in my experience in most other parts of the world. So consumers bought into HD displays because there was no alternative. That's not going to happen with 3D - there simply will not be the incentive to make a purchase of new technology, with a probably limited lifespan, and for which there will be very little quality content. Maybe sometime in the next 5-10 years we'll start to see really high resolution displays, with holographic 3D potential, and that will be the genuine next generation TV. The best we can hope for is that lots of production people will find out about all the problems of producing good 3D content, and they'll be ready.
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