Apple Is Dead, Long Live Apple
Apple is doomed. You heard it here first.
No, wait. Actually, I read it here first.
Ali Meshkati is a private money manager and a contributing writer to Forbes and MSN Money, among other magazines and financial websites.
Meshkati made his claim in a blog that gives investing advice on which tech companies to avoid down the road. In addition to Apple, he trashed Google and eBay.
At least Meshkati doesn’t fuss around; he goes after the big guys.
His logic concerning Apple is so horribly stereotypical of the company that at first I thought he was joking. There doesn’t seem to be a punch line, so I have to assume he is serious.
Meshkati’s argument centers on the idea that Apple is “a maker of gadgets” and every other company in the world is gunning to take Apple down. Not only that, but these gadgets will eventually be overtaken by gadgets made by other companies.
Really? I am by no means an Appleophile. Honestly, the only Apple product in my home is my son’s iPod Touch.
However, that does not mean I do not consider Apple to be one of, if not the most, innovative companies that I have ever followed. Apple detractors have always said the company’s success is due to the illogical allegiance it is given by a small, hardcore group of followers who would buy an Apple-branded spinning wheel if one was marketed. I don’t believe this old horse can be beaten any more.
The truth is that Apple is hauling in new customers at an astounding rate.
In fact, Apple is exactly the kind of company that Meshkati said will eventually kill Apple.
His argument is Apple will be overtaken by other firms with more imagination, and, as he said, “are moving in an even more unique way.”
That is exactly what Apple has done for its entire history, rolling out the unique and imaginative products.
Let’s bypass the company’s early days and focus on the last 13-years or so.
I believe Apple started down its current path in 1998 when it introduced the iMac.
Remember those cute all-in-one computers that came in a rainbow of colors? They were not particularly powerful, nor did they sport a huge display, nor were they technologically advanced. What they happened to be were colorful and something that had never been done before.
And people bought millions of them.
With the iMac, Apple managed to pack an entire desktop into a neat-looking small package. From this, Apple learned that while customers will buy a beige box, they really wanted something more, and this discovery set Apple down its current path.
Apple was not the first to market with an MP3 player, cellphone or tablet PC. However, the company’s hierarchy did look at the existing products available and decided it could do better. On top of that, Apple would not compete on price. Instead it would design and produce something consumers will pay more to own.
And people bought tens of millions of iPods, iPhones and iPads.
Will Apple hit a home run every time? No, but right now the company is the Albert Pujols of the tech field. It is the company that is moving in a unique way, and there is little reason to think it will change otherwise in the coming years.
According to industry rumors, the next product category on Apple’s target list is the venerable television. While others have taken a guess at Apple’s TV plans, I, to my shame as a reporter, haven’t divined Apple’s intention.
My one guess is it will be unique.
John Nemesh commented:
Apple is guilty of the sin of hubris. They believe they are the be all, end all of consumer electronics. So much so that they believe they can force customers away from existing web standards like Flash, and towards their own preference, h.264 via HTML5 (guess who owns a stake in h.264...). They routinely abandon their most loyal customers when switching to a new OS or platform.
They tell customers that they "are holding the phone wrong", when reports of bad antenna design surface. They strip "Pro" features out of Final Cut Pro. They insist on maintaining absolute control of the Apple App Store. I could go on and on and on.
The fact is that Apple doesnt care about its customers...at ALL. They care about their bottom line. To that end, they have overly expensive products (they USED to offer best in class hardware in exchange for that premium, no longer).
Their "innovation", as you call it, is nothing more than a slick coat of paint on someone else's ideas. They even go as far as to blatantly rip off ideas (and logos) from their developers, and roll the features they like from others apps into their own OS.
In short, they are an EVIL company! And without the Holy Steve to lead them, their company will drift into mediocrity and obscurity within a decade.
Make no mistake, they are living high on the hog right now...but all good things come to an end. IBM had their run (and are still doing well, just not in the consumer PC space), Microsoft had their time in the sun, now its Apple's turn...but that time in the sun is all too brief, and we are already seeing the shadow of Google fall over the campus at Cuppertino.
ZoetMB commented:
If Apple was going to die, it would have died during the recession. I'm an Apple fan and even I thought Apple was going to have a very tough time during the recession because even though their products are loved, they are also perceived as being expensive.
Yet Apple's performance during the recession was like there wasn't one. Just imagine how well they would have done if the economy had been good.
Apple does now have plenty of competitors. But they're not innovative competitors - they're all copycats. Look at today's NY Times for a very negative review of HP's tablet.
Every thing Apple does is predicted to fail. The iPod was predicted to fail because (it was said), cheaper MP3 players would predominate. But Apple created an eco-system that redefined the category.
The iPhone was predicted to fail because "no one would pay a lot of money for a phone when they could get one for free", but Apple's completely innovative user-interface and app store eco-system won everyone over, even when bandwidth problems with AT&T limited the phone's utility.
Apple's retail stores were predicted to fail because they would be an expensive distraction and that Apple could sell via stores like (the now defunct) Comp USA and Circuit City.
The iPod was predicted to fail because pundits didn't understand that Apple wasn't producing a netbook.
It's possible that Apple will have some problems in the coming years. If Steve Jobs leaves the company for any reason, the perception might be that without his leadership, Apple will not do as well. In addition, all creative people (and companies) have peak periods of creativity in their lifespans. While it seems like Apple's is never-ending, it's quite possible it will end at some point. And Apple is becoming increasingly arrogant and is making mistakes, like the recent launch of Final Cut Pro, which largely alienated the professional film/TV editing community.
But having said that, I'd bet on Apple's continued success more than any other company on the planet. And considering the size of Apple's new campus as well as the size of their new server farm and the rumors that the server farm would be doubled in size, I think Apple's got some new businesses in mind that even the rumor sites haven't guessed at yet.
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