The Format War: The Dog That Didn’t Bark
There will be plenty of post-mortems on the end of the format war, but for now let’s point out what did not happen: broadband-delivered HD content did not make optical discs irrelevant.
Many people speculated that the format war was a sideshow, that packaged media would be over-taken as content moved online (Reason Magazine’s Tim Cavanaugh described the contest as people battling to be “the next mayor of Pompeii.”).
But with a winner clearly established, and with on-demand HD video downloads no where near maturity, there is plenty of time for HD packaged media to penetrate the market.
Greg Scoblete commented:
I thought about this post a bit more myself. To your question: how
long will Blu-ray last? I say long enough for everyone (retailers,
studios, manufacturers) to make a tidy profit. Not as long as
standard def DVDs, but I don't think it's a two or three year
life-span either. Streaming/downloading HD content as a viable
business model would have to mature rapidly to really compete with
Blu-ray on a mass scale. You'll know Blu-ray is a dying format when
George Lucas releases the Star Wars movies in it.
Greg Scoblete commented:
Crystal Ball commented:
Blu Ray is indeed now the mayor of Pompeii. Yes people will buy it,
but its a limited time opportunity to get people to buy something
until HD downloading and streaming takes over.
It reminds me of APS film, billed as the successor to 35mm. We
all new it was just a stopgap until digital cameras had matured and
came down in price. Its similar for Blu-ray. Its days were numbered
before it ever hit the shelf. The only unknown is how long (or
short) it lasts.
BTW, anyone interested in taking bets on when Sony stops
releasing films on DVD? I figure Sony to release exclusively on
Blu-ray in 2009, 3rd quarter.
Crystal Ball commented:
It reminds me of APS film, billed as the successor to 35mm. We all new it was just a stopgap until digital cameras had matured and came down in price. Its similar for Blu-ray. Its days were numbered before it ever hit the shelf. The only unknown is how long (or short) it lasts.
BTW, anyone interested in taking bets on when Sony stops releasing films on DVD? I figure Sony to release exclusively on Blu-ray in 2009, 3rd quarter.
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