Peter Suciu

Video Game Crystal Balls: The Soothsayers Are Simply Guessing
December 12, 2007

Who is going to win this round in the never-ending video game console wars? Will it be Nintendo, making a surprise comeback after more than 15 years? Will Microsoft claim the top spot for the first time ever? Or will Sony pull a three-peat and come out on top with the PlayStation 3? The answer is yes to any of those questions … at least depending on whom you ask.

If you spend any time reading any of the dozens of video game news sites, you’ll see various news reports that say some industry insider predict that one company will win this round. It isn’t uncommon to see the executives of each of the aforementioned companies tell why they think its system will prevail — but in the video game world we often see the third-party developers weigh in too. And here is where it gets interesting. We should be able to take their opinions into consideration since these are the people making the games, but it is hard to believe developer X when it turns out they have exclusive deals with company A. So when these game developers badmouth console B, it doesn’t really mean anything.

The insight of the industry analysts should also tell a clearer picture. But for the most part it doesn’t. Ask a dozen analysts which console is likely to win, and at this point they can’t read the tea leaves any better than anyone else. This is notable because from week to week there seems to be a new report or study. And because the news sites do like to report the ever-changing predictions, the cycle repeats itself over and over. This hasn’t changed much in the past 60 weeks since things finally became very interesting with the release of Sony and Nintendo’s systems.

But part of the noise is also because the big three are continuing churn out press releases hyping numbers and getting everyone, including those aforementioned analysts, really excited over very little hard facts. In the last month we’ve seen Sony claim that PS3 sales have been up 300 percent since Nov. 2, which sounds impressive until you realize that Sony didn’t have the best October on record. Then we’ll hear that Nintendo sales were through the roof over the Thanksgiving weekend — good news for the House of Mario, but considering the supply chain issues are only now being addressed, isn’t this to be expected? Microsoft also reported 310,000 Xbox 360s were sold during the same period. But don’t all video game console sales increase with the coming holiday season? So is any of this really news? It would actually be news if sales were down over the Thanksgiving weekend!

This isn’t the time there has been a battle when it comes to being the top dog with video game consoles. So what’s the reason for such a foggy forecast this time? Well, because the last two rounds were dominated almost entirely by Sony. When the PlayStation arrived on the scene Christmas 1994 it faced off against an over-priced Sega system that was a non-starter at retail. Nintendo arrived late to the scene the following fall and by then the battle was all but over. The situation was essentially replayed in 2000 when Sony trounced Sega again in 2000, a full year before the debut of the Microsoft Xbox, while Nintendo was once again late to the party.

This time around it is Sony who has to make up the ground, and so far the company is having mixed results at best in doing so. While Nintendo has the mass audience appeal, and Microsoft has garnered hard-core gamer support with exclusive titles including Halo 3 and BioShock, Sony has been unable to unveil hardly any must-play games for the PS3.

Does this mean Sony is out of the picture? No. Does it mean that Nintendo can coast to an easy victory this time around and become King of the Hill again? Not necessarily. Nor does it mean that Microsoft will take the top spot for the first time. What all this means is that the best crystal balls in the world aren’t going to be able to predict which company is going to come out on top. And does it really matter?

At this point it is unlikely any of the three major players are going to take their marbles and go home. Even if Sony comes in second this hardware cycle, there is simply too much at stake to call it a day. Game sales have been very strong this year, and this war is really only beginning. Like any video game adventure the fates can change in an instant too. So go ahead listen to the analysts, see what the experts have to say. But know that in the end as long as these three companies turn a profit, they’ll consider it a victory.

Posted by Peter Suciu on December 12, 2007 | Comments (1)