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Planning For The Coming Population Tsunami
January 28, 2008
In 2011, three very short years from now, the first of this nation’s 78 million baby boomers will begin to retire (assuming they will begin retiring at 65) and when they do the impact on U.S. housing will be immense. Statistics developed by Dowell Myers and Sung Ho Ryu of the University of Southern California show that buyers of housing exceed sellers in each age group up to 65-69 at which point they are equal. After that, 70 and above, the number of sellers dramatically exceeds the number of buyers by almost 10-to-1 among those 80 or older. So in 2011 we have the beginning of 78 million people retiring who, if the past is an indicator of the future, will not only not be buying new or more houses but will in fact be selling what they own.
What will that likely mean to CE? Major changes, presuming the industry does nothing to reposition itself in light of this new demographic day. Fewer home buyers relative to home sellers along with an aging population suggests lower home prices, less new-home construction, smaller homes with less room for larger TVs, less need for A/V distribution/multiroom networking throughout the home, etc. — all of which will ripple throughout the economy in a variety of ways. Moreover, there are other realities of this demographic tidal wave such as the affect on Social Security, employment, healthcare, etc., all of which will impact your business as much if not more than changes in housing. And, remember, we’re not talking about a theoretical occurrence at some far distant time. All of this either has already or will begin in less than 36 months.
How much time you spend thinking about and planning for that future is a function of how much time you have today, which in the CE world is not likely much. But you need to. Forces like the coming change in housing are at work now and will significantly alter the economics that drives your business sooner than you think.
Bill Matthies is the president of Coyote Insight (www.coyoteinsight.com) and can be reached at (714) 726-2901 or wmatthies@coyoteinsight.com. Visit the Coyote Blog.
Posted by Bill Matthies on January 28, 2008 | Comments (2)
