Bill Matthies

The Sky Is (Potentially) Falling (Maybe)
October 19, 2007

Spin” comes in two flavors: intentional and otherwise, with the latter often being a glass half-full/half-empty thing. Case in point: the size of the “problem” that the February 2009 digital TV conversion represents. 

The optimists, which include the CEA, say the “problem” is manageable because the overwhelming majority of households will have bought a new digital TV prior to the cutoff date with the few who did not able to subsidize the cost of a converter box through the government’s conversion-box rebate program. The pessimists counter that the conversion will inflict pain on millions who (they say) cannot afford a new TV or even the portion of the converter box cost not covered by the coupon (estimated to be between $10 and $30.) Both sides advance good arguments for their positions, if you will, “spin”.

And then there is the third view of unintentional half-full or empty thinking.

Talking about the size of the market for converter boxes, the Oct. 11 Technology Journal column in the Wall Street Journal entitled “Cashing in on TV Switch” said,

“The potential market is sizeable because more than 69 million TV sets, by some estimates, rely on rabbit ears or rooftop antennas. Without the converter boxes, those TV sets will be useless after Feb.17, 2009, the mandated end to more than 70 years of U.S. analog transmissions.”

The primary point of the column is that RCA and Zenith intend to sell the bulk of whatever conversion boxes are sold. But almost totally unrelated to that, the above quote arguably appears to confirm that the number of affected citizens is indeed quite large (69 million of anything is a lot to me.) Look at the operative words, “more than 69 million,” and “rely on” and “TV sets will be useless” only mitigated somewhat by “potential,” softly suggesting that the actual number might be less. No comment regarding a large number of those TVs that, for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with the conversion to digital, will simply cease to work prior to February 2009. Or that an even larger number will be replaced by new digital sets prior to the cutoff. Or about the great number that now reside in back bedrooms watched by no one, not destined to be replaced or connected to a converter box no matter who pays for it. 

I doubt the author intentionally came down on the “it’s a big problem” side of things but that is what s(he) did. No doubt about it, more spin than a merry-go-round.  

Bill Matthies is the president of Coyote Insight (www.coyoteinsight.com) and can be reached at (714) 726-2901 or wmatthies@coyoteinsight.com

Posted by Bill Matthies on October 19, 2007 | Comments (0)