Bill Matthies

Format Wars, The Consumer View: ‘Hell No, We Won’t Go!’
September 26, 2007

WorldScreen.com, an Internet publication, recently published a story based on research done by U.K.-based research consultancy Screen Digest. As the article title implies (“Report: Studios Opting for Single HD DVD Format Could Lose Out”), a primary conclusion is that any studio that does not support both Blu-ray and HD DVD will leave money on the table given the relative strength of each format. Richard Cooper, Screen Digest video analyst, said in a company press release, "Both formats will be adopted, but slower than some in the industry was expecting.”

The part about movie studios “leaving money on the table” (my words for Screen Digest’s conclusion) is an interesting twist on how most view this latest CE format war. Any consumer who purchased a Blu-ray-only player will not be buying HD DVD discs with the reverse also being true. But the disc sales estimates reported in both the article and the original press release and in particular the conclusion that both formats “will be adopted” seems overreaching a bit. Actually QUITE a bit.

I talk a lot about what consumers don’t know about CE, things the industry should tell them, but one thing they do know is that every so often the industry indulges in a format war, and when that happens the smart money will simply wait it out, not buying anything until the dust settles. And lest you think otherwise, the “smart money” is most consumers who are perfectly content continuing to watch standard-definition DVD. 

Who can blame them? As it is, you now walk into a CE retailer and see the A/B comparison between standard DVD and, if they carry both, HD DVD and Blu-ray DVD, and both high-definition formats look great. But you’re only going to buy one, you know they will cost less in the future and you don’t want to make a mistake, so what do you do? Nothing. Just wait until a time when you come in and there is no choice to make.

I agree that studios will lose DVD sales but only to a very small minority who has already opted for one format over the other — in the grand scheme of things, small change. The bigger loss comes from those who will not buy any high-definition DVDs because they have not bought a high-definition DVD player, and likely won’t until a clear(er) format war winner becomes obvious to all. 

Like it or not, power to the people!

Bill Matthies is the president of Coyote Insight (www.coyoteinsight.com) and can be reached at (714) 726-2901 or wmatthies@coyoteinsight.com

Posted by Bill Matthies on September 26, 2007 | Comments (0)