No Surprises

Coming up with an accurate prediction of consumer electronics and major appliance holiday sales has always been about as difficult as reading tea leaves. One of the reasons is you can make a general prediction about national trends, but if your chain or store were in a depressed or booming part of the country, you'd probably say, "What country are they looking at?"

Well, as the effects of Sept. 11 sink in, the world has gotten a lot smaller. And while the country is more unified than any time since World War II, many of our consumers are concerned and edgy about what possible U.S. military strikes will be. They are concerned about the health and well being of themselves and their families. And they are concerned about the future.

In our page one story about holiday season sales predictions, senior editor Alan Wolf reviewed reports from the Conference Board, ARS, the National Retail Federation and others. The consensus opinion of these studies performed a week or two after the attack is predictable. Holiday season sales look bleak … except for those selling American flags, gas masks or anthrax vaccine.

Granted the electronics/appliance industry probably lost from three to five days of sales just after the attack, as everyone stayed home to watch continuing news coverage on TV. Inventories built up. And due to the crash of the stock market during the first week it was back in business, on paper the United States lost around a trillion dollars. But most average consumers never really did think they were going to retire at 52 due to the killing they were making in the stock market during the past decade. (Many high-flying stocks were already damaged during the past year or so.)

Now the view of many pundits discussing the future of any part of American life and culture is the same. From discussions of the national psyche and possible invasion of our privacy to keep this country secure, to the financial condition of Disney World, Las Vegas and pro sports, the prognosis from the pundits comes down to this: doom and gloom. If you step back to take a look, you have to realize that everything in real life, in the real world, is not black and white. The crisis we are in is no exception.

I'm not saying that things won't be tough during the fourth quarter. If you were discussing the holiday season with someone on Sept. 10, holiday sales were expected to be mediocre. The industry was prepared for that, so given the aftermath of Sept. 11, a tough holiday season should not be a surprise.

Even so, in this industry big screen and projection TV sales seem strong in many areas of the country. I know there are families whose refrigerators, washers or dryers are ready for the landfill, and they will go out and buy replacements. And since the attack, sales of cellular phones have skyrocketed. Which all goes to show that the electronics/appliance business is nothing if it is not resilient.

A TWICE Thank You

Some of you may have left voice mail or e-mail messages just to check in on us. Others responded to our phone calls for industry news and information just after Sept. 11 and started the conversation by asking how we were. To all of those to voiced concern about the status and health of the TWICE staff and our families, we thank you. We were lucky.

Most of us left our office on West 17th Street here in Manhattan early on Sept. 11 to get home, and we all got home to find our families and friends were safe and sound. Still many of us, too many New Yorkers, know stories of a neighbor's friend or a relative's co-worker that either died or is still missing in the attack.

One of the most poignant messages we received was a sympathy card from Steve Trice, Kent Shiplet and several executives of accessories maker Jasco Products. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Jasco, the company is based in Oklahoma City, a place that knows only too well the horror of terrorism in America. Our thanks go to Jasco and to all our industry friends who took the time to find out how we were doing and sent us their prayers and good wishes.