DisplaySearch: Price, Content Hinder 3D TV
By Greg Tarr -- TWICE, 10/13/2010
Santa Clara, Calif. - DisplaySearch released a study of 3D TV sales Wednesday showing consumer uptake has been limited by high prices and lack of content.The market research firm added, however, that expectations for falling prices, increased content availability, and improvements in technology should lead to "tremendous growth in 3D TV shipments over the next few years."
DisplaySearch forecast 3.2 million 3D TVs will be shipped in 2010, growing to more than 90 million in 2014.
The category is expected to grow from 2 percent of all flat-panel TVs shipped in 2010, to 41 percent in 2014, the firm said.
The 3D TV study is listed as part of the latest issue of the DisplaySearch Q3 '10 Quarterly TV Design and Features Report.
"While TV manufacturers have bold plans and a lot of new products, consumers remain cautious," stated Paul Gray, TV electronics research director. "Consumers have been told that 3D TV is the future, but there still remains a huge price jump and little 3D content to watch."
"North American consumers in particular appear to be playing a waiting game," noted Paul Gagnon, North American TV research director. "Set makers have trained consumers to expect rapid price falls for new technology, and consumers seem happy to wait a little."
DisplaySearch forecasts that 3D shipments in North America will total less than 1.6 million this year.
Sales of 3D glasses also remain low in most of the world, with most countries failing to achieve 1:1 sales of glasses to sets, DisplaySearch said.
"This is particularly disappointing," noted Gray, "A healthy level would be closer to two pairs of 3D glasses per TV, so it's clear that these sets at best are being chosen for future-proofing, and at worst it's an indication that consumers cannot buy a premium set without 3D."
DisplaySearch said 3D is a feature that set makers are determined to develop, as illustrated by rapidly expanding product launch plans.
DisplaySearch said it has increased its forecast for 3D in later years, with an anticipated 90 million sets being shipped in 2014.
"TV manufacturers strongly believe in 3D and are driving its cost downward, but its value to consumers relies strongly on the availability of quality material to watch," Gray concluded.
Talkback
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3-D was not a well thought out plan. By this time next year you will not hear much about 3-D. Let’s look at the problems that will keep 3-D a niche product, a very niche product.
1. Flat Panel - Most consumers finally purchased a flat panel TV within the last few years with some of the consumers paying extremely high prices as little as 5 years ago. Many consumers waited until the last minute to abandon their old sets due to rumors and sometimes facts about the longevity and picture quality of the “new” Plasma and LCD flat panels. And of course there was the high price. As a retail salesperson I can tell you that it was a lot of hard work convincing people that Plasma and LCD were now the standard and it was time to upgrade from their old TV’s. Does the flat panel industry think for a moment that all of these consumers will now abandon the flat panel they just purchased in the last 5 years to buy yet another “new 3-D” flat panel at prices that were prevalent 5 years ago? Plus they have to spend on average about $100 for 3-D glasses. Speaking of the glasses, what if you have a Super Bowl party and you have 20 people present and the game is in 3-D…$2000 in glasses. Nuf said.
2. Projectors – Looking to buy a new 3-D projector? Well “we have a problem Houston”. I didn’t know about these issues until I attended the recent CEDIA show in Atlanta. Evidently when wearing the 3-D glasses, brightness will drop 40%. Yes, 40%! What does that mean for us who are looking to upgrade our 2-D projector to the new 3-D projector? If you want to enjoy both 2-D and 3-D formats you will need 2 screens! One high gain and one normal gain. I’m sure this problem will be addressed by the screen manufacturers, but as mentioned, 3-D was not planned well. Also, the glasses…
3. Surround Sound – Did you purchase a new surround receiver with HDMI switching in the last few years? Well guess what? You need a newer one that will support HDMI 1.4 for 3-D transfer.
4. Blu-Ray – Last but not least. Did you purchase a Blu-ray player? Maybe you purchased a player a few years ago when they first came out for around $800 or maybe you got lucky and waited until last year when you could buy one for $200. Guess what? You need a new Blu-ray player too! Your current player will not read 3-D discs.
5. 3-D content – What content?
After writing this brief summary I must recant my opening statement that 3-D “was not a well thought out plan”. It was a plan to fail, period. I wish the manufactures would spend more time perfecting a technology instead of trying to invent new technologies that we didn’t even ask for! 3-D has been around for over 50 years and it has always been a niche product and in my opinion will stay that way.
John Niski - 2010-14-10 12:34:24 EDT -
I have a Panasonic 65 3D TV. there is nothing out there that even comes close. I enjoy it. Why are the Blue Ray Movies dragging their feet. Hardly any releases have came out. WHY? They really are spoiling it for us guys that have put out the money. We are so hungry for new 3D Blue ray movies.
Steve James - 2010-14-10 12:14:28 EDT
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