Home Phone Sales To Decline 12%: CEA Forcast
By Greg Scoblete -- TWICE, 1/28/2002
Arlington, VA. — Factory-level sales of residential and SOHO phones and related products will fall 12.3 percent in 2002 to $2.98 billion following last year's estimated 13.3 percent upsurge to $3.39 billion, according to a Consumer Electronics Association forecast.
The numbers include corded and cordless phones, standalone answerers, integrated phone/answerers, and caller ID boxes.
The 2002 dollar-sales drop will result from a combination of declining unit sales and a decline in the average cordless price to $42, CEA said. In 2001, unit sales also declined, but dollar sales rose because of a jump in average cordless-phone prices to $49 from $40, CEA numbers show. That gain was due largely to growth in the higher priced 2.4GHz cordless segment.
Here's what CEA forecasts by communications segment:
Combined corded/cordless: Dollar volume in this category, which excludes integrated phone/answerers, is expected to drop 14.6 percent to $1.95 billion from 2001's estimated $2.28 billion.
Corded phones: Dollar sales, excluding integrated corded-phone/answerers, will drop 14.6 percent to $264 million in 2002 from an estimated $320 million in 2001.
Cordless phones: After 2001's 25.5 percent dollar-sales upsurge in 2001 to $1.96 billion, sales are forecast to drop 14 percent to $1.68 billion in 2002 (excluding integrated cordless-phone/answerers).
In units, cordless phones are expected to make extremely modest gains in 2002, when sales are forecast to rise 0.3 percent to 40.1 million from 2001's 40 million. The average sale price is expected to drop by $7 to hit $42 in contrast to 2001's $9 gain to $49.
Answerers, integrated phone answerers: Dollar volume grew an estimated 8 percent in 2001 to $1.07 billion but us is forecast to fall back 7.3 percent to $996 million in 2002.
Unit sales slip imperceptibly to 21 million in 2002 from 2001's 21.1 million, which was up 5.9 percent from 19.9 million in 2000. CEA forecasts the average price will drop $5 in 2002 to $46 after having risen in 2001 by $1 to $51.
Caller ID Devices: Dollar sales will continue to erode in 2002, dropping 20.5 percent to $31 million following 2001
In other communications categories:
Wireless Phones: Through consumer sales channels, the factory dollar value is forecast to grow 2.1 percent to $8.84 billion following 2001's estimated 3.8 percent drop to $8.65 billion.
Unit sales grew an estimated 1.5 percent in 2001 to 53.4 million and are forecast to rise again in 2002 by 6.7 percent to 57 million.
Family Radios: Dollar value will grow 11 percent in 2002 to $510 million in 2002 following 2001's 9.8 percent gain to $459 million.
Unit sales will also continue to grow. In 2002, sales are forecast to jump 14.9 percent to 17 million following 2001's estimated gain of 23.9 percent to 11.9 million. The average price will fall $1 to $30 in 2002 following 2001's estimated $4 drop to $31.
CEA 2000-2002 Communications Equipment Sales Outlook(Units in 1,000s, $ value in millions)
| 2000 Actual | 2001 Estimate | 2002 Forecast | |||||||
| Unit Sales | Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | Unit Sales | Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | Unit Sales | Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | |
| Home telephones | 68,712 | 1,948 | 28 | 66,700 | 2,280 | 34 | 64,100 | 1,948 | 30 |
| Corded | 29,670 | 386 | 13 | 26,700 | 320 | 12 | 24,000 | 264 | 11 |
| Cordless | 39,042 | 1,562 | 40 | 40,000 | 1,960 | 49 | 40,100 | 1,684 | 42 |
| Wireless phones* | 52,600 | 8,995 | 171 | 53,400 | 8,651 | 162 | 57,000 | 8,835 | 155 |
| Family Radio Svc. Dev. | 11,942 | 418 | 35 | 14,800 | 459 | 31 | 17,000 | 510 | 30 |
| Answerers** | 19,876 | 994 | 50 | 21,050 | 1,074 | 51 | 21,000 | 996 | 46 |
| Caller ID Devices | 5,356 | 54 | 10 | 3,850 | 39 | 10 | 3,050 | 31 | 10 |
| Pagers | -- | 750 | -- | -- | 790 | -- | -- | 810 | -- |
| *Sales through consumer channels. **Includes integrated phone/answerers. Source: CEA ©TWICE 2002 | |||||||||
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