9 Million Car Nav Users Expected By 2004
By Jamie Sorcher -- TWICE, 5/10/1999
The vehicle navigation/information category continues its dramatic evolution as manufacturers continue fine-tuning products and addressing ease-of-use and pricing issues.
Consumers are finally showing broader interest in these products, according to a number of reports. Market research companies Price Waterhouse and Dataquest, for example, say the market for in-vehicle nav/info systems is expected to boom in the next five years to 9 million users in North America.
A recent CEMA survey of 1,000 randomly selected car owners found that most (60%) are aware of vehicle navigation systems, and 70% are interested in the safety features of car PCs.
The survey found a higher level of familiarity with nav systems (79%) among the 45% of consumers who reported accessing the Internet during the previous month. Of these online motorists, 74% access information on places they plan to visit, 69% download maps and 54% get directions.
CEMA’s study also revealed that 70% of car owners want a car PC to send emergency distress signals, and 51% say the ability to make hands-free phone calls is valuable to them. Access to emergency phone numbers and the ability to locate the nearest gas station are other popular features.
Ganesh Moorthy, general manager of Intel’s Home Products Group, Appliance Division, told attendees at ITS ’99, held April 19-22 in Washington, D.C., that Intel’s research revealed consumers are "getting very vocal about what they want and what they don’t want."
Consumers want navigation tools followed by traffic alerts, diagnostic tools, automated 911 features, voice-activated notepads, hands-free phones, and connections to home computers. What they don’t want, Moorthy emphasized, is technology: "This is about delivering solutions, about delivering convenience. This is about making their lives easier, making their lives more productive."
Moorthy also told ITS ’99 showgoers that the Internet would become a "very pervasive force" in all ITS applications. New users of the Internet, he said, are being added at the rate of more than one per second, or 100,000 signing on every day.
Even though manufacturers and retailers say that early adopters are the consumers buying such devices as Alpine’s Mobile May Day and Clarion’s AutoPC right now, all signs point to more mainstream consumers embracing these products as they become less expensive and more established.
For instance, CEMA’s study found that consumers expect car PC prices to remain similar to what desktop versions cost. The largest percentage (20%) expect to pay $1,000 for the features and functions important to them. Another 15% figure their system could cost up to $1,500, while 18% expect it will cost them between $1,500 and $2,000.
When asked how likely they were to order a $1,000 car PC for their next vehicle, provided the cost could be added into their monthly payment, more than half (51%) are likely to buy.
Auto makers, as well, are including navigation/information systems in more models not only as options, but as standard features.
But one of the technologies that has the greatest potential to propel the category forward is speech technology. According to Menlo Park, Calif.-based SRI Consulting, speech-recognition technology will be key to the success of certain in-vehicle ITS products, marking a shift away from today’s predominant use of displays.
Research that links handheld phone use with increasing accident rates and concern about high-information, in-dash displays will lead to the greater importance of voice-activated systems, according to SRI’s report. And as safety issues are addressed and legislation is developed, speech will become the dominant drive interface.
Voice Information Associates, based in Lexington, Mass., estimates the current market for speech-recognition products to be about $700 million and set to grow to $5 billion by 2001 and $8 billion by 2003.
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