Nobody Asked Me But ...*
By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 1/30/2006
In one of last year's post-CES issues of TWICE this headline appeared for a Viewpoint column: “Call For One Optical HD Format.” After a year a call may have been made but nobody answered it, at least according to what happened at CES.
Both HD DVD and Blu ray backers are hell-bent to introduce their competing formats this year. (See TWICE, Jan. 16, p. 1)
Nobody asked me, but this is lunacy.
And I'm not the only one saying it, either. Retailers will carry both but are dead set against selling two incompatible formats because they fear consumer confusion.
Anyone who's been around this industry long enough knows what this format battle is all about: licensing fees. More money is usually made by developing a standard vs. building hardware and selling it. A toe-to-toe format battle strategy might have eventually worked in the analog 20th century, but someone should remind both sides that we are in the digital 21st. Dueling hardware formats are not the only game in town.
Sooner than anyone can imagine there will be more and higher capacity broadband connections available to consumers nationwide. With content providers (supposedly) becoming more comfortable providing their programming in HD, if this format battle isn't settled quickly, the way consumers will watch HD movies will be by downloading them to their computers or home servers via the Web, or from cable or satellite providers to their HD displays.
Someone should get the best Blu-ray and HD DVD engineers in a room, lock the door and don't let them out until they have one format. More importantly, lock the financial wizards of both groups up in a room and don't let them out until they can come up with a formula to share licensing fees.
If not, there won't be much in the way of sales or profits for either format. (Remember sales forecasts for DVD Audio and Super Audio CD ?)
Speaking of content, television seemed to go in two directions at CES: bigger, crystal-clear HD screens for the home and smaller, fuzzier pay-as-you-go, anywhere-you-want TV on MP3 players, PMPs or cellphones.
Broadcasters, movie studios, cable networks and the like are all running to cut deals to sell their TV shows and movies via Google, Yahoo, cellphone companies etc. to be viewed on these handheld devices.
Nobody asked me, but ... is there a business model in all of this?
I haven't run into a single retailer who is clamoring to carry these products and services yet. The content providers, who for the most part are very slowly providing HD content, see dollar signs in their eyes when it comes to handheld TV because of the proposed price tags they put on their wares.
It looks like the content guys and some hardware suppliers for that matter, want to be ahead of the technology curve this time around vs. what happened with free music downloads a few years ago. They want to make sure that Apple doesn't dominate the video side of the handheld business, as they have the audio side. But here's a question: Is there a video side of the handheld business? Or is this a first try in getting consumers to buy on-the-go video, with real acceptance happening in five years or so?
(* With apologies to the legendary New York sportswriter Jimmy Cannon, who coined the phrase.)
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