CEA Phone Forecast Sees Continued Growth In 2000
By Martha McDonald -- TWICE, 1/24/2000
Last year's double-digit unit sales growth in corded and cordless phones will slow to a more modest pace in 2000, but dollar volume will grow at a slightly faster pace because wholesale prices will stabilize after 1999's double-digit decline, CEA said in its latest factory-level sales forecast.
Combined corded and cordless sales will grow 5.7 percent to $2.47 billion, compared to last year's 4.7 percent gain, while unit sales will rise 6.8 percent to 81 million, compared to 1999's gain of 26 percent to 75.9 million units.
Similarly, unit sales of answerers will rise more modestly than last year but will post a 2.3 percent dollar gain to $1.06 billion, compared to last year's 5.9 percent decline, because the average wholesale price won't fall as much as it did in 1999, CEA said.
In the corded and cordless market, combined unit sales of 75.9 million in 1999 came in at 26 percent over CEA's original forecast, which was made in early 1999, and 26 percent over 1998's sales of 60.3 million units. The unit growth capped an incredible 10-year growth curve. For example, cordless phone sales were only 10.1 million in 1990 but are projected to hit 43.3 million units in 2000. In corded phones, the 2000 forecast calls for 37.7 million units, up from 1990's 22 million units.
Decade-long answering machine sales didn't climb as steeply, but they nonetheless grew from 13.6 million in 1990 to more than 22 million units forecast for 2000.
In 2000, corded and cordless sales combined are forecast to rise 6.8 percent to 81 million units on a 5.7 percent dollar volume gain to $2.47 billion. The average wholesale price will slip only 1 percent to $31.
Broken out separately, cordless phone dollar sales are expected to rise 8.2 percent in 2000 to $1.91 billion on an identical 8.2 percent unit-sales gain to 43.3 million units. The average price is expected to remain unchanged at $44.
The corded forecast for this year is mixed, with unit sales rising 5.2 percent to 37.7 million units, but dollar volume contracting 1.7 percent to $565 million because of a 6.3 percent decline in the average price to $15.
Answering machine sales, meanwhile, are expected to gain in both units and dollars in 2000. Unit sales will jump 8.7 percent to 22.2 million, while dollar sales will rise 2.3 percent to $1.06 billion on a 5.9 percent decline in the average wholesale price to $48.
In 1999, dollar sales of corded and cordless phones combined hit $2.34 billion, up 4.7 percent, from 1998's $2.23 billion, reflecting a 16.9 percent decline in average price to $31 from 1998's $37.
Once again, cordless led the pack during 1999 in unit growth. Unit sales rose 28.2 percent to 40.1 million from 1998's 31.3 million. Cordless dollar sales, on the other hand, posted an increase of only 1 percent in 1999 to $1.76 billion, reflecting a precipitous drop of 21.4 percent in the average wholesale price to $44 from the previous year's $56.
Last year's corded sales showed increases in both unit and dollars, with units up 23.6 percent to 35.8 million from 29 million in 1998. Dollar sales rose 17.6 percent to $575 million from 1998's $489 million. The average corded phone price dropped 5.9 percent last year to $16.
Answering machine sales in 1999 posted a 10 percent unit sales increase to 20.4 million, but factory dollar sales were off 5.9 percent to $1.04 billion.
The average price of an answering machine dropped 15 percent in 1999 to $51 from $60.
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