CES 2009: CE Sales Should Fall 0.6% In 2009

By Steve Smith -- TWICE, January 8, 2009

LAS VEGAS — The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) is forecasting a drop in full-year factory sales to dealers for the first time in recent memory, a 0.6 percent decrease to $170.9 billion for 2009.

According to a report being released here at International CES, the prediction of almost flat sales is not surprising, given the weak holiday selling season at retail for CE and all home goods, plus the troubled prognosis for the general economy in the new year.

While the industry should get a bounce in sales due to the digital TV transition set for Feb. 17, economic conditions are expected to put a drag on the normally resilient CE industry.

CEA is estimating that when all the sales reports are in that 2008 CE volume will reach $172.08 billion, a 5.4 percent gain, which is surprising given the stormy fourth quarter at retail and would represent the first time industry sales crossed the $170 billion barrier.

For 2007 actual CE sales were $163.2 billion, a healthy 7.4 percent increase over 2006.

The CEA report’s data is based on actual sales totals and estimates provided by member companies that participate in its statistical programs.

Based on CEA reports over the years, CE sales have been on a steady climb for more than a decade. In 1995 the industry had $64.5 billion in sales; it crossed $90 billion in 2000 with $93.4 billion, and then dropped slightly to $92.8 billion in 2001, due to the end of the Internet investment bubble and the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. By 2005 CE sales had more than doubled the ’95 performance with $133.3 billion in sales.

CEA president/CEO Gary Shapiro will discuss this report and the state of the industry during his keynote address this morning at 8:30 a.m. at the Palazzo Ballroom of the Venetian.