CEA Sees Sales Up 8.8% In '05
By Bob Gerson -- TWICE, 9/19/2005
Arlington, Va. — The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) has lowered its forecasting sights for overall consumer electronics factory sales this year from the predictions it presented at International CES in January.
The updated and revised data now includes final figures for 2004 sales and a first look at 2006.
An overly optimistic prediction for digital color TV sales and a shortfall in the anticipated sales of flash-memory products are primarily responsible for the lower anticipated 2005 total industry sales of $122.9 billion. That total, a new record and up 8.8 percent from the now-finalized 2004 sales figure of $112.9 billion, falls significantly short of the $128.8 billion CEA looked for at the start of the year. The preliminary outlook for 2006 is for total industry sales of $131.8 billion, up 7.3 percent.
The earlier forecast for 2005 unit sales of direct-view digital TV came in at 9.85 million, generating revenue of $6.26 billion. But the current outlook is for sales of only 4.3 million units with sales dollars at $2.56 billion. That slack is being taken up for the most part by sales gains for digital combination receivers, set-top boxes and flat-screen color TVs. Total video sales for this year are expected to be up 16.1 percent to $24.4 billion. With digital TV sales picking up, the forecast for 2006 video sales is for a 16 percent rise to $28.3 billion.
In the industry's largest sector, home information products, sales this year are seen edging up just 2.9 percent to $5.46 billion on a slipping performance by telephone products, computer printers and software, and modest growth in demand for PCs. A similar erosion is seen leading to essentially flat sales of $42.6 billion next year.
A sales decline in home audio this year is being more than counterbalanced by surging demand for MP3 players, and the overall category is seen ending 2005 with sales of $6.24 billion, up 10 percent. But with the growth rate for MP3 slowing, the outlook for 2005 is for audio sales to be up jut 3.2 percent to $6.44 billion.
Strong growth in wireless phones and navigation equipment is lifting 2005 sales to an expected rise of 14.9 percent to $21.8 billion. A lower growth of just 5.4 percent is anticipated for next year with volume seen coming in at just under $23 billion.
In blank media, sales of flash media enjoyed a healthy 13.2 percent rise in sales to $3.52 billion. For 2006, growth in computer media is expected to add to gains and result in a 16.2 percent jump to $6.35 billion.
Revised CEA 2004-06 Sales And Outlook(Units in 1,000's, $ value in millions)
| 2004 Actual Unit Sales | Factory $ Value | 2005 Forecast Average $ Price | Unit Sales | 2006 Projection Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | Unit Sales | Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | |
| Total TV | 31,117 | 14,764 | 474 | 35,118 | 22,663 | 645 | 37,636 | 26,990 | 717 |
| Total Color TV | 30,967 | 14,759 | 477 | 34,993 | 22,659 | 648 | 37,526 | 26,987 | 719 |
| Total Analog Color | 20,128 | 3,696 | 184 | 15,743 | 2,545 | 162 | 9,818 | 1,353 | 138 |
| Direct View | 20,031 | 3,611 | 180 | 15,711 | 2,527 | 161 | 9,793 | 1,339 | 137 |
| Color Only | 19,934 | 3,526 | 177 | 15,679 | 2,509 | 160 | 9,768 | 1,325 | 136 |
| Projection | 97 | 85 | 876 | 32 | 18 | 563 | 25 | 14 | 552 |
| Digital Color(2) | 7,196 | 10,196 | 1,417 | 15,339 | 18,233 | 1,189 | 23,604 | 23,604 | 1,000 |
| Direct View(3) | 974 | 728 | 747 | 4,309 | 2,564 | 595 | 8,453 | 4,384 | 519 |
| Projection(3) | 3,510 | 5,543 | 1,579 | 3,187 | 4,599 | 1,443 | 2,997 | 4,101 | 1,368 |
| TV Combinations(1) | 3,643 | 867 | 238 | 3,911 | 1,881 | 481 | 4,104 | 2,030 | 495 |
| Total Flat-Panel TV | 2,712 | 3,926 | 1,448 | 5,952 | 6,891 | 1,158 | 10,134 | 10,441 | 1,030 |
| LCD | 1,842 | 1,579 | 857 | 3,948 | 2,977 | 754 | 6,727 | 4,597 | 683 |
| Plasma | 870 | 2,347 | 2,698 | 2,004 | 3,914 | 1,953 | 3,407 | 5,844 | 1,715 |
| Monochrome TV | 150 | 5 | 35 | 125 | 4 | 33 | 110 | 3 | 27 |
| Total VCRs | 7,826 | 1,781 | 228 | 5,914 | 1,464 | 248 | 5,616 | 1,493 | 266 |
| VCR Decks | 2,267 | 130 | 57 | 1,319 | 69 | 52 | 995 | 47 | 47 |
| Camcorders(4) | 5,559 | 1,651 | 297 | 4,595 | 1,395 | 304 | 4,621 | 1,446 | 313 |
| DVD Players(5) | 19,990 | 2,183 | 109 | 14,943 | 1,862 | 125 | 13,981 | 1,906 | 136 |
| Videocassette Players | 40 | 2 | 38 | 36 | 1 | 24 | 25 | — | 18 |
| Set-Top Boxes (6) | 17,577 | 2,355 | 134 | 22,050 | 2,583 | 117 | 22,882 | 2,584 | 113 |
| Personal Video Recorders | 1,647 | 459 | 279 | 3,158 | 744 | 236 | 6,469 | 1,418 | 219 |
| Home Satellite Systems | 16,880 | 1,886 | 112 | 17,603 | 1,478 | 84 | 17,982 | 1,418 | 79 |
| Digital Still Cameras | 18,852 | 4,739 | 251 | 23,158 | 6,135 | 265 | 25,200 | 6,023 | 239 |
| Total audio systems | 6,882 | 902 | 131 | 6,509 | 674 | 104 | 6,252 | 591 | 95 |
| Rack systems | 8 | 2 | 250 | 8 | 2 | 250 | 4 | 1 | 219 |
| Compact systems | 6,874 | 900 | 131 | 6,501 | 672 | 103 | 6,248 | 590 | 94 |
| Separate components | — | 1,325 | — | — | 1,163 | — | — | 1,127 | — |
| Home Theater In A Box | 4,702 | 931 | 198 | 4,224 | 792 | 188 | 4,469 | 798 | 179 |
| Total CD players (7) | 37,465 | 2,974 | 79 | 32,950 | 2,336 | 71 | 29,385 | 2,033 | 69 |
| Portable CD Players | 18,929 | 758 | 40 | 16,052 | 567 | 35 | 13,356 | 441 | 33 |
| Other CD Players | 18,536 | 2,216 | 120 | 16,898 | 1,769 | 105 | 16,029 | 1,592 | 99 |
| Home Radios (8) | 9,983 | 232 | 23 | 7,745 | 195 | 25 | 7,164 | 168 | 23 |
| Total Tape (9) | 8,521 | 234 | 27 | 6,948 | 201 | 29 | 6,643 | 190 | 29 |
| Tape Players | 1,646 | 28 | 17 | 1,171 | 20 | 17 | 922 | 15 | 16 |
| Tape Recorders | 6,875 | 206 | 30 | 5,777 | 181 | 31 | 5,721 | 175 | 31 |
| Headset Portables (10) | 21,985 | 726 | 33 | 18,185 | 556 | 31 | 15,723 | 456 | 29 |
| MP3 Players | 7,126 | 1,289 | 181 | 15,930 | 2,648 | 166 | 20,508 | 3,125 | 152 |
| Total autosound | — | 5,693 | — | — | 5,888 | — | — | 6,134 | — |
| Aftermarket | — | 2,124 | — | — | 2,033 | — | — | 1,971 | — |
| Original Equipment | — | 3,569 | — | — | 3,855 | — | — | 4,163 | — |
| Aftermarket Car Security | — | 255 | — | — | 253 | — | — | 250 | — |
| Radar Detectors | — | 120 | — | — | 120 | — | — | 118 | — |
| Mobile Video/Navigation | — | 782 | — | — | 907 | — | — | 1,029 | — |
| Personal Computers* | 20,000 | 18,233 | 912 | 21,750 | 18,284 | 841 | 23,326 | 18,586 | 797 |
| Personal Digital Assistants | 5,550 | 720 | 130 | 4,850 | 680 | 140 | 4,285 | 643 | 150 |
| PC Printers* | 19,581 | 4,053 | 207 | 18,406 | 3,589 | 195 | 17,854 | 3,285 | 184 |
| Set-Top Internet Boxes | 285 | 31 | 110 | 150 | 14 | 95 | 125 | 11 | 87 |
| Aftermarket Monitors | 7,825 | 2,214 | 283 | 8,575 | 2,315 | 270 | 9,250 | 2,239 | 242 |
| Modems/Fax Modems* | 13,765 | 1,465 | 106 | 15,450 | 1,525 | 99 | 16,150 | 1,455 | 90 |
| Other PC Peripherals* | — | 3,032 | — | — | 3,350 | — | — | 3,625 | — |
| Computer Software* | — | 5,162 | — | — | 5,007 | — | — | 4,952 | — |
| Electric Typewriters (11) | 142 | 6 | 45 | 136 | 5 | 38 | 133 | 4 | 33 |
| Fax Machines* | 1,790 | 186 | 104 | 1,407 | 128 | 91 | 975 | 87 | 89 |
| Home Telephones | 54,977 | 1,393 | 25 | 50,725 | 1,243 | 25 | 48,004 | 1,200 | 25 |
| Corded | 17,372 | 259 | 15 | 15,362 | 237 | 15 | 14,440 | 237 | 16 |
| Cordless | 37,605 | 1,134 | 30 | 35,363 | 1,006 | 28 | 33,564 | 963 | 29 |
| Wireless Phones* | 84,586 | 10,538 | 132 | 104,500 | 13,272 | 127 | 114,950 | 14,266 | 129 |
| Family Radio Service Devices | 13,060 | 201 | 18 | 12,550 | 168 | 16 | 11,295 | 158 | 14 |
| Answerers | 24,083 | 1,274 | 53 | 25,555 | 1,224 | 48 | 25,702 | 1,184 | 46 |
| Caller ID Devices | 2,016 | 13 | 6 | 1,950 | 11 | 6 | 1,780 | 9 | 5 |
| Pagers | — | 675 | — | — | 525 | — | — | 400 | — |
| Home Security | — | 2,150 | — | — | 2,250 | — | — | 2,363 | — |
| Total accessories | — | 1,815 | — | — | 2,095 | — | — | 2,415 | — |
| Batteries (12) | — | 5,730 | — | — | 6,260 | — | — | 6,636 | — |
| Blank Cassettes* | 453,000 | 515 | — | 392,000 | 394 | — | 335,000 | 333 | — |
| Audio | 128,000 | 65 | — | 102,000 | 48 | — | 84,000 | 39 | — |
| Video | 325,000 | 450 | — | 290,000 | 346 | — | 251,000 | 294 | — |
| Blank PC Media* | — | 1,692 | — | — | 1,546 | — | — | 1,745 | — |
| Flash Media | — | 3,102 | — | — | 3,521 | — | — | 4,269 | — |
| Video Games | — | 10,512 | — | — | 11,591 | — | — | 13,701 | — |
| Hardware | — | 3,162 | — | — | 3,722 | — | — | 5,045 | — |
| Software | — | 7,350 | — | — | 7,869 | — | — | 8,656 | — |
| (1) All analog & digital TV combos with VCR, DVD. (2) Includes direct-view, flat-panel & projection TVs and monitors. (3) Excludes monitors. (4) Includes analog and digital (5) Includes DVD/VCR combos; portables. Excludes TV/DVD combos. (6) Includes PVRs and satellite & digital TV receivers. (7) Includes home, portable and autosound. (8) Includes table, clock & portable. (9) Includes radio combinations. (10) Includes portables counted elsewhere. (11) Includes personal word processors. (12) Primary cells for consumer use. *Sales through consumer channels Source: CEA Market Research ©TWICE 2005 | |||||||||
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