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It's Crunch Time

By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 9/3/2001

With Labor Day weekend now a memory, children going back to school and the football season upon us, no one has to tell you that autumn is here.

For those of us who make a living in the electronics/ appliance industry, you don't need those harbingers of the season to tell you what time of year it is. All you have to do is check your traveling schedule. I know we do at TWICE. More of our staff travels during the vicinity of Labor Day than any time in the year other than CES.

Our editors will be covering CEDIA in Indianapolis, as well as RetailVision and the AVB Buying Group convention in Las Vegas this week. Two weeks ago the Nationwide TV & Appliance buying group held its convention, last week IFA was held in Berlin, previewing products we should soon see in the United States, and next week the MARTA Cooperative of America will hold its third group meeting of the year in Nashville. (You can read previews and final coverage of all these shows in this issue.)

While all this activity helps the travel business, there is a common thread to all of these conventions being held on or around September 1 — preparation for the Holiday selling season. While this preparation is always important, this year it is more vital than in the last decade. To use a football cliché, "We're in the final quarter and its crunch time."

Oh it's crunch time, all right. Due to lackluster retail sales this year everyone, both vendors and dealers alike, are planning, hoping and praying that holiday shoppers will come early and often, and buy. During most of the year, regional electronics/appliance chains have said that they have "held our own" this year, meeting or slightly exceeding last year's sales pace. Those small guys are still benefiting from last year's departure of Circuit City from the appliance business and the demise of Montgomery Ward early this year.

But what of manufacturers or retailers that are publicly held? Flat sales or "holding your own" versus last year's numbers are never phrases for stockholders', or executives', ears. There have been layoffs, both large and small, at such varied companies as DirecTV, RadioShack, Sony and Toshiba, among others. And losses for plenty of manufacturers and retailers in the wide tent that is the electronics/appliance industry have been recorded.

Yet there are some reasons for hope. Even with the usual, new video game machines from Microsoft and Nintendo will be hitting the market. More HDTV promotions and programming will reach consumers this fall, although much more programming will be needed to finally build massive sales momentum at retail. And more upscale digital cameras, DVD players and camcorders should, all things being equal, drive consumers into stores.

But it won't be easy and it might get messy before we reach New Year's Eve. There will probably be enough price-cutting to erode even the best bottom lines in the industry, as manufacturers create specials for retailers who will try to move excess inventory out the door.

No one should expect that four months of work will overcome the sluggish sales performance of the past eight. So for those of you who are attending this month's conventions keep a watchful eye and a keen ear on all the activity going on. It may give you a sense of how much work you will have to do to put this calendar year behind you without too much damage on your bottom line.

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