Unpredictable Predictions
By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 12/20/2004
As quickly as it arrived, 2004 is sprinting towards the door. Time goes by fast when you’re having fun, or in this case, being involved in an exciting, ever-changing industry.
Starting at CES in January, which set attendance records, things were hopping all year. If you sat down during early January in Vegas and made a few predictions, a couple would have been plausible: a Blu-ray/HD DVD format war, and CompUSA, which bought Good Guys in December 2003, putting PCs in those stores and consolidating buying operations for the northern California chain in Dallas.
But if you made the following predictions during 2004 CES, few would have believed you:
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The Sears and Kmart merger;
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Best Buy going upscale emphasizing its most profitable customers with “consumer centricity”;
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The Professional Audio Video Retailers Association (PARA), celebrating its 25th anniversary, joining CEA;
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Former metro New York retailers making news. Former Wiz executive Tasso Koken became the head of Sears’ electronics operation and ex-Tops manager Phil Schoonover left Best Buy to join rival Circuit City;
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Gateway moving 180 degrees away from its old strategy and gets out of CE business, closing its stores and getting back to emphasizing its strength, PCs;
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Office Depot unveiling a new retail format in June, but chairman/CEO Bruce Nelson leaving in October and layoffs of 500 announced in November;
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Ultimate Electronics, one of the founding members of the PRO Group, returning to the buying organization while it is trying to turn its fortunes around;
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Sony moving most of its CE operations from New Jersey to San Diego, with several managers deciding to leave rather than move. And few noticeable retailer complaints are heard as it opens more Sony Style stores;
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Sirius signing Howard Stern and hiring his mentor Mel Karmazin as CEO, with Joe Clayton becoming chairman;
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A revival in the home audio business, after a few years of falling sales, due in part to the boom in flat-panel TVs;
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And Wal-Mart getting lambasted by stock analysts because during Black Friday, the chain will be less promotional and attempt to emphasize (horror of horrors) profits.
All that happened this year. (For more, take a look at our annual retail retrospective on p. 16 and one on the major appliance business on p. 106.)
My point is that the management catchphrase “out of the box thinking” may not have been coined by someone in this business, but it is a philosophy that many retailers and manufacturers have employed in this industry for years to get an edge on the competition.
That’s why predicting the future in this business is futile, but being nimble and adaptable to change is more vital than ever.
And finally, one publishing note. Be sure to visit www.TWICE.com to keep up with the latest news until our next issue is published January 6. And if you are attending International CES, pick up the TWICE CES Official Daily.
Have a happy, healthy and safe holiday season, and see you in Vegas during January.
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