Presidential Elections & CE
By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 1/7/2008
The presidential primary election season is already in full swing, earlier than ever before.
I know you're not reading TWICE to get coverage of the race for the presidency, especially not this week as International CES opens in Las Vegas. But the election, and the goings-on in Washington during an election year, will have a profound effect on this industry.
As of this writing, the final retail sales numbers for the 2007 holiday season have not yet been compiled, but through mid-December, CE sales at least were higher than expected. The CEA's own annual Holiday Purchase Patterns study predicted a 7 percent gain in CE sales. That prediction looks pretty accurate.
But what does business look like for 2008? Energy costs are still too high, the credit crunch is still around affecting just about everything, and some are also predicting a slowdown or recession. Does that mean that sales will slow down for CE this year?
Historically speaking, not necessarily, and 2008 has some extenuating circumstances attached to it. Looking back, during most presidential election years since the 1950s, CE sales have gone up, led by television sales. Some say the party in power in Washington spins to make things seem better than they are. Others say special events like the election, but more likely the Olympics and other sporting events, boost TV sales.
Whatever the historical precedent, CE sales this year should be helped by the Feb. 17, 2009, switch from analog to digital TV. Between NAB, CEA, broadcasters, manufacturers and retailers, consumers will be sick of hearing about it by the end of the year, just like Y2K was over-hyped. (At least many industry execs hope the switch to digital gets that type of hype.)
More HDTVs will be sold than ever before. As for profits ... they will be slimmer per unit than ever before. No surprise there.
There will also be more HD programming available than ever before. But will there be one HD disc format available by the end of the year? Probably not, but my crystal ball must be analog because it is a little hazy discussing this matter.
One thing that is abundantly clear is that if this were fashion, green would be the new black. The environment and global warming is everyone's concern. CEA should be commended for making the 2008 version of CES a "green" event. But as more analog tube TVs are tossed, there will be more calls nationwide than ever before to set state or national policies on CE recycling.
The industry will be challenged to help guide the discussion so that legislation won't restrict innovation or put undue financial penalties onto suppliers, retailers and consumers.
If you are reading this from CES this week, have a great show and pick up a copy of the official TWICE CES Daily and, like those who didn't make it to the show, visit us online at www.TWICE.com.
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