Circuit City Withdraws First Half Forecast, Expects Q1 Loss
by Steve Smith -- TWICE, 5/1/2007
Richmond, Va. — Circuit City said it now expects a first-quarter loss and withdrew its forecast for the first half based on disappointing flat-panel and projection TV sales.
The retailer reported that “it experienced substantially below-plan sales, primarily related to the large flat panel and projection television categories” and changed the forecast it reported in early April.
Due to this trend, the company now expects “a loss from continuing operations before income taxes of $80 million to $90 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2008. In light of uncertainties in the current operating environment, the company is withdrawing its previously issued guidance for the first half of fiscal year 2008.”
In April Circuit City indicated that it assumes a pretax loss of $40 million to $50 million in the first half, “with a strong recovery in the second half.” Phil Schoonover, chairman, president/CEO, said the chain will “use the first half to stabilize business for the important second half” in terms of layoff expenses and the like.
In the statement issued yesterday, Circuit City said that assuming business trends improve and the transformation efforts are effective, the company forecasts fiscal 2008 earnings from continuing operations before income taxes (EBT) as a percentage of consolidated net sales at the low end of the company's previously guided range of 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent.
The company will continue to monitor general business trends as well as the effectiveness of its transformation efforts and expects to provide an updated fiscal 2008 forecast when it releases results for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 in June.
In that same statement, the company reported it would continue to take actions to support sales growth and margin improvements as well as reduce its cost and expense structure in order to compete more effectively in today's marketplace.
“As previously discussed, we are moving with increased urgency to accelerate our transformation initiatives. Although the first half of the fiscal year will be volatile due to the change in the television business, we believe that our transformation efforts will yield positive results for the full fiscal year,” Schoonover said.
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Joe,
Your one sentence comment reminded me of the ''ol days of catalogue showrooms like Service Merchandise and Best. Looking back at my original post, it seems that I had just recreated a concept which had failed well over a decade ago, (at least for those two companies mentioned above). However, a strictly CE based catalogue showroom may not be too far off, especially if big-box retailers such as Circuit City and Comp USA continually treat their store associates as used toilet paper. Warm bodies walking around a store in colorful polo shirts are not getting the job done in terms of customer service and the art of customer assurance, (the art of ensuring a customer that he or she is buying the ''right'' product for their needs). I don''t directly blame the ''warm bodies'', it is clearly the level of respect and motivation that is not being provided to them through the retailer they work for. The trend of replacing well motivated and knowledgeable sales associates with warm bodies are beginning to force the consumer to get their product information/education elsewhere, particularly the internet. My forecast of a CE retail model is not original, but it is a forecast of what may become due to the labor trends we see now in brick-and-mortar CE retail. A polarization is happening in CE retail where on one side, there''s a low service/low price point retailer. And, on the other side there is the high service/high ticket CE retailers. This is leaving a large demographic who wants a good quality product from a reputable brand but does not want to pay a premium of hundreds or thousands of dollars just to have the sub-brand of ''XBR'' or ''Elite'' molded into the plastic bezel.
Circuit City and other big box retailers like them could eventually morph into the catalogue showroom model in a few years, whether the customers want it or not. Consumers may be forced to talk or look at a free standing kiosk in the near future, and why not! Kiosks are cheaper than humans and provide more accurate information much quicker and without bias, (unless the bias is programmed in). I do not wish to see the complete replacement of sales associates with a machine, but the way Circuit City and other retailers treat their store level employees, it''s almost a given. Hello catalogue showrooms of the 21st century! Sure, Service Merchandise and Best have failed at their model over a decade ago. But as the standard investment prospectus says, "Past performance does not guarantee future results."
Adam - 2007-8-5 02:54:00 EDT -
What you forecast sounds like a catalog showroom.
Joe Palenchar - 2007-2-5 09:17:00 EDT -
CEO Phil Schoonover said:
"As previously discussed, we are moving with increased urgency to accelerate our transformation initiatives..."
And what would those transformations be exactly?!...
...A red-colored Best Buy chain with lower paid and less knowledgable sales associates perhaps!
Trends in retail have shown that more and more people are making their decisions based on what they research online as opposed to making their purchasing decisions at the store level. Is it because of the advancements of online content? NO! The internet as a tool for research, (of various brands and products), has been around for many years. What is causing this trend is the lack of staffing, service, and knowledge at the store level. More and more people are realizing that the only way to get in-depth information about a product, such as a flat TV, is to go online and find the specifications yourself. This trend is going to virtually eliminate the need for the traditional sales associate and turn them into single-digit, hourly paid order takers, (as many of them have become already).
The poor service at the store level, created by the retail corporate executives, is what''s driving the popularity of internet based research.
Here''s a retail model concept that may become reality someday, and it might be what Circuit City or another CE retailer eventually evolves into:
A big-box retail setting with two types of associates, merchandising and "customer service" associates. In this retailer, there would be no "sales" associates. The only thing that would give information to customers are several kiosks in each department with various manufacturer information on the products that this retailer carries. The information would be greatly detailed with the ability to compare other similar products on the screen, (much like you do on the manufacturers'' web sites). The customer would then chose the product on display at the store, and a merchandising associate would pick up the product from the warehouse and bring it to your car or set up a delivery time. The only people who would actually be in the store "selling" anything would be the occasional manufacturer''s representatives, and not the retailer''s employees.
It would be interesting to see if this concept, or something similar, ever becomes a reality.
Adam - 2007-1-5 14:56:00 EDT
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