The Sky Isn't Falling
By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 1/8/2009
I'm damned tired of the constant doom and gloom concerning the general economy.
Yes, this recession is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Layoffs have been massive, 401(k)s for many have disappeared and the values of some Blue Chip stocks have moved close to the penny category.
What gets me is the "pack mentality" of Wall Street wizards who designed the toxic mortgage-based securities that got us into this mess, government-types who were supposed to regulate the markets, and the financial media. They all screamed, "Buy, Buy, Buy!" when stock prices and real estate values were soaring based, in large part, on their shenanigans.
When the markets worldwide collapsed, they yelled, "The sky is falling!" And they pointed fingers at each other for this mess as they ran to Washington and got a bailout.
Now they are preaching that 2009, which is in its infancy, is already a washout.
Maybe I'm cranky and just too optimistic, but if they were so over-the-top before, why should we believe these so-called experts now?
What angers me now is that their panic has seeped into some in the CE industry from those who should know better: industry insiders and analysts.
Brad Anderson, president/CEO of Best Buy, when he announced the chain's disappointing fiscal third-quarter performance and a buyout of around 4,000 headquarters employees, was correct in saying, "There has been a dramatic and potentially long-lasting change in consumer behavior as people adjust to the new realities of the marketplace."
Consumer habits may change in the long term, given the short-term economic realities and the lessons learned by the economic excesses of the past couple of decades.
But some "sky is falling" comments about the CE industry — such as, the Panasonic/Sanyo deal was made because CE's future prospects are lousy, several top TV brands will fold, Wal-Mart will take over the CE industry, etc. — are just a little over the top.
Yes, the holiday selling season was lousy. Yes, long-standing major retail and supplier brand names that helped create this industry will disappear and some leading executives will be displaced.
But, without being too callous, that's what happens when you're in a recession ... and that happens at lot in CE even in the good times. In the early 1980s when we had a deep recession, technologically there were relatively few cable TV subscribers and no satellite TV. Few ever heard of the Internet was. iPod and MP3 didn't exist, and cellphones for the entire family and HDTV were dreams for the future.
Today, consumer electronics products are a part of everyday life worldwide.
What may ease this industry's way through this recession are the many technologies we will see this week during International CES, such as IPTV, from Intel and from many top TV suppliers. On the audio side, more Internet radios will debut. Mobile TV, which just may bring back portable TV, will have some major introductions. Liquid HD, a proposed technology to easily network HD content throughout the home, is one of a few that will spur growth for years to come.
I'm not minimizing the challenges ahead. The recession has been tough and will continue to be for everyone. But I think the CE industry has the creativity, expertise and resiliency to navigate through this economic storm.
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