CEA Forecasts 6.1% Growth In CE Sales In 2008, To $171B

By Bob Gerson -- TWICE, 1/21/2008

LAS VEGAS — The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) estimates the industry closed out 2007 with full-year factory sales to dealers of a record $161.7 billion, a gain of 8.4 percent from 2006, and is forecasting a gain of 6.1 percent for this year, with volume rising to $171.6 billion, according to figures announced the International CES, held here earlier this month.

Despite the general economic slowdown in last year's final quarter, the 2007 estimate is a significant improvement on the outlook for the year CEA issued at the CES last January. Then it was forecasting 2007 sales to come in at $155.2 billion, up just 6.5 percent from 2006. CEA's data is derived from actual sales totals and estimates provided by member companies participating in its statistical programs.

According to CEA, the industry's largest category by far continued to be in-home technologies, a sector that includes all video, audio, communications and computer products, with sales last year rising better than 5 percent to $76.3 billion, with nearly a third of that total, or more than $25 billion, coming from sales of digital TVs. CEA said the industry passed an important digital TV milestone in 2007 as market penetration topped 50 percent of all U.S. TV households. It anticipated digital TV sales will generate volume of more than $28 billion in 2008, helping overall sales of In-Home Technology products to rise nearly 5.7 percent to $80.6 billion.

The anywhere technologies sector, made up of digital cameras, camcorders, portable audio, portable communications and electronic gaming products, is estimated to have posted about a 14 percent sales gain to $53.9 billion in 2007, and the outlook for this year is for a rise of just slightly more than 6 percent to $57.1 billion.

The fastest-growing sales sector in 2007 was in-vehicle technologies, which covers aftermarket and factory-installed audio equipment, and aftermarket video and navigation gear, with sales for the year estimated at almost $11.4 billion, up some 15 percent from 2006. For 2008 CEA is looking for a 12.9 percent increase to $12.8 billion.

Blank recording media, batteries and the industry's vast array of accessories are included in CEA's consumer electronics enhancement category, which, the trade group estimated, generated $20.1 billion in 2007 sales, up just less than 5 percent from the preceding year. For this year the forecast for the sector called for a 4.4 percent gain to almost $21 billion.

Total U.S. Consumer Electronics Sales
Dollar sales in $ millions

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007e	2008p
In-Home Technologies	58,133	63,099	66,324	72,715	76,287	80,619
TVs and Displays	14,528	16,783	19,022	24,726	26,007	29,171
Video Components	5,440	4,658	4,206	4,611	4,779	5,384
Audio Separates/Systems	3,000	3,390	2,862	2,794	2,963	2,925
Home Information Technologies/Security	32,169	35,282	37,318	37,883	40,307	41,153
Communications	2,996	2,986	2,915	2,700	2,231	1,986
In-Vehicle Technologies	6,388	7,062	7,860	9,357	11,371	12,834
Entertainment	5,842	6,426	7,140	8,003	8,580	9,628
Information & Security	546	636	720	1,354	2,791	3,206
Anywhere Technologies	28,841	31,317	38,341	47,893	53,894	57,139
Digital Imaging	5,923	6,390	7,315	9,827	10,496	10,461
Portable Entertainment	1,779	2,281	5,003	6,722	6,913	7,113
Electronic Gaming	10,253	10,512	11,070	12,875	15,758	17,872
Portable Communication	10,886	12,134	14,953	18,469	20,727	21,693
CE Enhancement	14,070	16,593	17,821	19,181	20,103	20,991
Total Accessories	10,320	11,135	12,117	13,614	14,784	15,694
Blank Media	3,750	5,458	5,704	5,567	5,319	5,297
Total	107,432	118,071	130,346	149,145	161,655	171,583
(e) estimated, (p) projected Source: CEA© TWICE 2008

TWICE NPD Market Magnifier: Fastest-Selling Flat-Panel TVs
Based on sales per million dollars of CE sales in the market for the three months ending November 2007

Display Size: Less Than 37 Inches
1	Pittsburgh	$19,078
2	Detroit	$18,736
3	Harrisburg-Lancaster, Pa.	$18,630
4	Cincinnati	$18,289
5	Hartford & New Haven, Conn.	$18,109
Display Size: 37 Inches Or More
1	Indianapolis	$51,865
2	Columbus	$51,570
3	Cincinnati	$50,533
4	Detroit	$49,452
5	Cleveland-Akron	$49,291
Detroit and Cincinnati are among the fastest-selling markets for both smaller and larger flat-panel TVs
Most of the fastest-selling markets are in the Midwest
All smaller-screen-size markets' sales rates exceedeed the national average by at least 16%
All larger-screen-size markets' sales rates exceed the national average by at least 27%
Note: NPD market level data is collected from individual retail locationsof a panel of 60 industry-leadingretailers for consumer electronics, information technology, mobile audio, and imaging. To normalize comparisons between markets, market level data looks at category dollar sales for every million dollars in total consumer electronic sales in the market. Larger markets, those with higher populations, will generally have larger absolute volume sales.