Looking Back, Looking Ahead
By Steve Smith -- TWICE, 11/24/2003
With apologies to Charles Dickens, this issue of TWICE is a visit from "Christmas Past and Christmas Future," namely the TWICE State of the Industry report.
Along with our typical industry news coverage the State of the Industry report (starting on p. 29) consists of three well-known surveys: the TWICE Top 100 Consumer Electronics Retailers and TWICE Top 100 Major Appliance Retailers reports and the Consumer Electronics Association's (CEA) 10th Annual Holiday Purchase Patterns survey.
As you may remember, during April we ran the TWICE Top 100 Consumer Retailers report and in June the Major Appliance version, which ranks the largest retailers in both categories by their annualized sales volume for calendar year 2002.
What is different about the reports in this issue is that we have updated our numbers for calendar year 2002, as well as the profiles of each chain. The overall trends we reported in the original versions of the Top 100s remain the same. Usually our updates appear in the following year's report, but in this issue we have changed some sales volumes for individual retailers based on feedback from those retailers and from other industry sources.
If you are one of many who keep our Top 100 reports on file, please make sure to update your databases with the new information enclosed.
As for the 10th Annual Holiday Purchase Patterns Survey, CEA is proud to say that over the years it has been pretty accurate in projecting sales patterns in CE. The report (see p. 66), which was released last month at the CEA Industry Forum held at the La Costa Resort in Carlsbad, Calif., showed continued enthusiasm for CE by consumers. But at the same time, pricing may suffer.
First the good news. The report shows that nearly 75 percent of all U.S. households say they are likely to purchase at least one consumer electronics product as a gift this season. Seventy percent of consumers are likely to spend the same amount or more this year on gifts this holiday season, up two percent from last year. Believe it or not, the average consumer will purchase about seven consumer electronics products this holiday season, up from six during last year's holidays. Among the most popular products this season will be (in order starting from most popular) DVD players, digital cameras, video game systems, wireless phones, MP3 players, PCs of all types and HDTVs.
The only fly in the ointment is the usual one for the CE industry: average pricing will be 5 percent lower than last year. But retailers will be moving boxes: unit sales will be up about 4 percent, with revenue being about 2 percent lower than the same time last year.
Along with preparing your operations for the official beginning of the holiday shopping season, a look back at your major competitors' performances for 2002 and predictions of what may occur this year may reinforce your plans, or change them completely. Either way TWICE hopes this issue will help in your planning.
And remember, we will report what did occur at retail, from "Black Friday" throughout the holiday season, in our December issues. A full wrap-up of the holidays at retail will appear in our Jan. 8 issue, which, in case you've forgotten, is the same day International CES opens in Las Vegas.
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