Manufacturers See A Flat Majaps Year In '07, Says AHAM
By Alan Wolf -- TWICE, 1/8/2007
WASHINGTON — The major appliance industry hit a rough patch in the back half of 2006 that will likely persist through the balance of the new year, according to the latest projections by white goods manufacturers.
A hurting housing market and tough prior-year comparisons will likely conspire again to keep factory shipments relatively flat in 2007, with total unit volume expected to rise only 0.1 percent year-over-year to 81.8 million units, according to vendor data compiled by the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM). That compares with an estimated 3.3 percent increase in wholesale sales, to 81.7 million units, in 2006.
Among the biggest anticipated gainers within the core product sectors are dishwashers, which vendors forecast will increase 4.5 percent to 7.7 million units shipped this year, compared with a 1.4 percent increase in 2006.
The biggest loser will likely be room air conditioners, shipments of which are expected to slip nearly 11 percent to 9 million units after rocketing 25.7 percent in 2006.
Among other core categories, cooking, including gas and electric cooktops and ranges, will eek out a 1.4 percent gain to 24.6 million units year-over-year, while washers and dryers together will increase 1.3 percent to 18 million units, vendor forecast.
Refrigerators shipments will also cool, falling from a 2.1 percent increase last year to a 1.4 percent gain this year.
Summing up the conservative forecast is the outlook for the AHAM 6, an amalgam category that includes the core washer, dryer, dishwasher, refrigerator, freezer, and freestanding and built-in range sectors. Factory shipments are expected to rise 1.8 percent, barely outpacing last year's 1.7 percent projected gains.
Despite the softness, white-goods suppliers will dodge the actual sales downturns that impacted the industry as recently as 2005 (-0.1 percent) and 2002 (-0.6 percent).
Business also looks brighter when considered from the long view. Over the past 10 years, shipments have increased 60 percent, from 51.4 million units in 1997, to this year's projected 81.8 million majaps.
Industry Shipments of Major Appliances*(in thousands of units)
| Product | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006*** | 2007*** |
| Cooking-Total | 16,126 | 17,954 | 19,542 | 20,846 | 21,548 | 21,917 | 23,315 | 25,390 | 23,809 | 24,232 | 24,573 |
| Electric Ranges - Total | 4,240 | 4,639 | 4,983 | 5,026 | 5,066 | 5,338 | 5,622 | 6,145 | 6,194 | 6,311 | 6,406 |
| Free Standing | 3,177 | 3,481 | 3,785 | 3,826 | 3,842 | 4,030 | 4,238 | 4,612 | 4,677 | 4,762 | 4,848 |
| Built-In | 617 | 652 | 705 | 706 | 726 | 780 | 841 | 963 | 975 | 1,002 | 1,008 |
| Surface Cooking Units | 446 | 506 | 493 | 494 | 498 | 528 | 543 | 570 | 542 | 547 | 550 |
| Gas Ranges - Total | 2,744 | 2,950 | 3,137 | 3,176 | 3,036 | 3,268 | 3,419 | 3,719 | 3,755 | 3,736 | 3,737 |
| Free Standing | 2,391 | 2,543 | 2,698 | 2,729 | 2,580 | 2,781 | 2,897 | 3,124 | 3,131 | 3,104 | 3,103 |
| Built-In | 73 | 71 | 72 | 70 | 72 | 71 | 67 | 67 | 64 | 60 | 57 |
| Surface Cooking Units | 280 | 336 | 367 | 377 | 384 | 416 | 455 | 528 | 560 | 572 | 577 |
| Microwave Ovens | 9,142 | 10,365 | 11,422 | 12,644 | 13,446 | 13,311 | 14,274 | 15,526 | 13,860 | 14,185 | 14,430 |
| Home Laundry - Total | 11,635 | 12,624 | 13,622 | 14,070 | 13,863 | 14,637 | 15,480 | 16,754 | 17,383 | 17,782 | 18,019 |
| Automatic Washers | 6,326 | 6,835 | 7,313 | 7,495 | 7,362 | 7,745 | 8,146 | 8,832 | 9,225 | 9,569 | 9,717 |
| Dryers - total | 5,309 | 5,789 | 6,309 | 6,575 | 6,501 | 6,892 | 7,334 | 7,922 | 8,158 | 8,213 | 8,302 |
| Electric | 4,114 | 4,482 | 4,865 | 5,095 | 5,117 | 5,402 | 5,718 | 6,262 | 6,451 | 6,531 | 6,613 |
| Gas | 1,195 | 1,307 | 1,444 | 1,480 | 1,384 | 1,490 | 1,616 | 1,660 | 1,707 | 1,682 | 1,689 |
| Kitchen Clean Up - Total | 9,548 | 10,186 | 11,196 | 11,430 | 11,291 | 12,137 | 12,831 | 13,884 | 14,586 | 14,548 | 14,839 |
| Disposers | 4,619 | 4,936 | 5,369 | 5,485 | 5,547 | 5,815 | 6,277 | 6,649 | 7,040 | 6,898 | 6,850 |
| Dishwashers - Total | 4,826 | 5,144 | 5,712 | 5,827 | 5,627 | 6,207 | 6,428 | 7,106 | 7,424 | 7,529 | 7,869 |
| Built-In | 4,653 | 4,969 | 5,542 | 5,663 | 5,478 | 6,049 | 6,280 | 6,953 | 7,291 | 7,394 | 7,739 |
| Portable | 173 | 175 | 170 | 164 | 149 | 158 | 148 | 153 | 133 | 135 | 130 |
| Compactors | 103 | 106 | 115 | 118 | 117 | 115 | 126 | 129 | 122 | 121 | 120 |
| Food Preservation - Total | 9,414 | 10,401 | 11,086 | 11,180 | 11,520 | 12,279 | 12,544 | 13,429 | 13,349 | 13,581 | 13,786 |
| Refrigerators# | 7,924 | 8,774 | 9,099 | 9,217 | 9,305 | 9,744 | 10,021 | 10,913 | 11,135 | 11,374 | 11,529 |
| Freezers - Total | 1,490 | 1,627 | 1,987 | 1,963 | 2,215 | 2,535 | 2,523 | 2,516 | 2,214 | 2,207 | 2,257 |
| Chest | 795 | 875 | 1,058 | 1,075 | 1,285 | 1,492 | 1,518 | 1,529 | 1,321 | 1,315 | 1,350 |
| Upright | 695 | 752 | 929 | 888 | 930 | 1,043 | 1,005 | 987 | 893 | 892 | 907 |
| Home Comfort - Total | 4,656 | 5,559 | 7,244 | 7,471 | 6,381 | 6,952 | 9,527 | 9,754 | 9,989 | 11,600 | 10,600 |
| Room Air Conditioners | 3,836 | 4,528 | 6,294 | 6,496 | 5,575 | 6,153 | 8,216 | 8,082 | 8,032 | 10,100 | 9,000 |
| Dehumidifiers | 820 | 1,031 | 950 | 975 | 806 | 799 | 1,311 | 1,672 | 1,957 | 1,500 | 1,600 |
| All Major Appliances | 51,379 | 56,724 | 62,690 | 64,997 | 64,603 | 67,922 | 73,697 | 79,211 | 79,116 | 81,743 | 81,817 |
| AHAM 6*** | 32,133 | 34,916 | 37,680 | 38,408 | 38,230 | 40,785 | 42,495 | 46,055 | 47,003 | 47,820 | 48,690 |
| * Includes shipments for the U.S. market whether imported or domestically produced. Export shipments are NOT included ** Forecasts are as of Oct 31, 2006. Forecasts are a median of the participating companies' forecasts. *** AHAM 6 includes washers, dryers, dishwashers, refrigerators, freezers, and freestanding and built-in ranges. # Includes units of 6.5 cu ft and over Total Industry Shipments may not add due to rounding Source: AHAM ©TWICE 2007 | |||||||||||
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