CEA Outlook Reflects Revised Product Classes
By Staff -- TWICE, 9/25/2006
In compiling its upwardly revised sales outlooks for this year and next, the Consumer Electronics Association also revised its product classification system, bringing it more into line with the changing market technologies of the 21st century.
As previously reported, CEA's new forecast for the value of industry sales to dealers calls for a rise of 9.2 percent this year to just over $140 billion, and a 6.7 percent increase in 2007 to $149.3 billion.
For current reporting purposes, CEA has broken industry sales down into four major product categories: In-Home Technologies, including all analog and digital video hardware (except for camcorders), in-home office and security products, non-portable audio products and home telephone equipment; In-Vehicle Technologies, covering all mobile related entertainment, information and security devices; Anywhere Technologies, including imaging devices (digital cameras and all camcorders), portable audio and MP3 players, video game hardware and software, and portable communications; and CE Enhancement, for accessories, batteries and blank A/V and computer media.
By far the largest category, Home Technologies, where size makes double-digit sales growth unlikely, is expected to post a 5.4 percent rise this year to just under $70.8 billion and increase just 2.6 percent to $72.6 billion next year. But while the percentage increases are modest, they represent respective hefty dollar volume gains of $3.6 billion and $1,85 billion. The leading growth category for this year is Anywhere Technologies, where a 2006 increase of 16.4 percent to $8.5 billion is anticipated, with boosts coming from new video game hardware and advanced-feature cellphones. For 2007, sales are projected to rise by 7.9 percent to $48.1 billion.
Sales of In-Vehicle Technologies are seen coming in at $8.51 billion this year, up 8.3 percent, and posting a sharp 13.4 percent climb to $9.65 billion in 2007. Expected to support most of the growth is rising demand for navigation equipment. Total sales of CE Enhancement products are expected to be up 8.5 percent this year to $16.1 billion, and up a nearly double 17.6 percent to just under $19 billion in 2007. Driving this segment of the market, CEA says, is surging demand for accessories for use with new A/V devices and MP3 players.
The CEA sales predictions reflect a consensus of estimates provided by reporting members.
CEA 2003-05 Sales And Outlook(Units in 1,000s, $ value in millions)
| Unit Sales | 2005 Actual Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | Unit Sales | 2006 Forecast Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | Unit Sales | 2007 Projection Factory $ Value | Average $ Price | |
| Total TV | 31,797 | 19,022 | 598 | 31,639 | 22,104 | 699 | 29,825 | 22,278 | 747 |
| Total Color TV | 31,672 | 19,018 | 600 | 31,529 | 22,101 | 701 | 29,727 | 22,276 | 749 |
| Total Digital Color | 11,369 | 15,563 | 1,369 | 19,666 | 20,513 | 1,043 | 26,690 | 21,853 | 819 |
| Direct View | 6,952 | 7,688 | 1,106 | 14,583 | 12,745 | 1,043 | 20,796 | 14,737 | 709 |
| Color Only | 1,236 | 821 | 664 | 4,193 | 1,749 | 417 | 6,608 | 1,999 | 303 |
| LCD | 4,077 | 3,258 | 799 | 7,999 | 6,800 | 850 | 11,260 | 8,350 | 742 |
| Plasma | 1,639 | 3,609 | 2,202 | 2,391 | 4,196 | 1,755 | 2,928 | 4,388 | 1,499 |
| Projection | 3,767 | 7,355 | 1,952 | 3,945 | 7,267 | 1,842 | 3,619 | 6,365 | 1,759 |
| Rear Proj. | 2,965 | 4,441 | 1,498 | 2,945 | 4,317 | 1,466 | 2,469 | 3,339 | 1,352 |
| Front Proj. | 802 | 2,914 | 3,633 | 1,000 | 2,950 | 2,950 | 1,150 | 3,026 | 2,631 |
| Combinations(1) | 650 | 520 | 800 | 1,138 | 501 | 440 | 2,275 | 751 | 330 |
| Total Analog | 20,428 | 3,459 | 169 | 11,973 | 1,591 | 133 | 3,135 | 425 | 136 |
| Direct View | 16,935 | 2,790 | 165 | 8,615 | 1,049 | 122 | 1,139 | 126 | 111 |
| Projection(3) | 20 | 15 | 750 | 5 | 3 | 600 | -- | -- | -- |
| Combinations(1) | 3,348 | 650 | 194 | 3,243 | 536 | 165 | 1,898 | 297 | 156 |
| Monochrome TV | 125 | 4 | 32 | 110 | 3 | 27 | 98 | 2 | 23 |
| VCR Decks | 1,365 | 79 | 58 | 850 | 45 | 53 | 200 | 10 | 50 |
| Total DVD (2) | 20,554 | 2,462 | 120 | 26,528 | 3,829 | 144 | 36,525 | 5,014 | 137 |
| DVD Recorders | 1,928 | 409 | 212 | 6,985 | 1,240 | 178 | 13,320 | 1,893 | 142 |
| DVD Players(3) | 18,626 | 2,053 | 110 | 19,543 | 2,589 | 132 | 23,205 | 3,121 | 134 |
| Total Settop Boxes | 17,584 | 2,359 | 134 | 14,843 | 2,211 | 149 | 16,162 | 2,387 | 148 |
| Personal Video Recorders | 2,728 | 701 | 257 | 4,774 | 1,104 | 231 | 6,445 | 1,371 | 213 |
| Home Satellite Systems(4) | 13,939 | 1,366 | 98 | 9,060 | 834 | 92 | 8,607 | 745 | 87 |
| Compact Audio Systems | 6,010 | 612 | 102 | 3,907 | 418 | 107 | 3,203 | 332 | 104 |
| Separate components | -- | 1,318 | -- | -- | 1,330 | -- | -- | 1,390 | -- |
| Home Theater-In-A-Box | 3,807 | 730 | 192 | 3,062 | 628 | 205 | 2,723 | 562 | 206 |
| Home Radios | 9,066 | 202 | 22 | 9,973 | 180 | 18 | 10,272 | 166 | 16 |
| Personal Computers* | 22,400 | 19,400 | 866 | 24,416 | 19,666 | 805 | 27,346 | 20,264 | 741 |
| PC Printers* | 19,973 | 3,995 | 200 | 20,273 | 3,953 | 195 | 19,867 | 3,675 | 185 |
| Aftermarket Monitors | 8,575 | 2,315 | 270 | 9,167 | 2,218 | 242 | 10,025 | 2,175 | 217 |
| Modems/fax modems* | 15,450 | 1,525 | 99 | 16,150 | 1,455 | 90 | 16,789 | 1,360 | 81 |
| Other PC peripherals* | -- | 3,375 | -- | -- | 3,656 | -- | -- | 4,045 | -- |
| Computer software* | -- | 5,250 | -- | -- | 5,325 | -- | -- | 5,475 | -- |
| Elex. Typewriters (5) | 136 | 5 | 38 | 133 | 4 | 33 | 127 | 4 | 30 |
| Home security | -- | 2,322 | -- | -- | 2,670 | -- | -- | 3,204 | -- |
| Home telephones | 55,421 | 1,135 | 20 | 47,715 | 1,063 | 22 | 43,686 | 944 | 22 |
| Cordless | 36,955 | 943 | 26 | 32,059 | 849 | 26 | 28,107 | 685 | 24 |
| Corded | 18,466 | 192 | 10 | 15,656 | 214 | 14 | 15,579 | 259 | 17 |
| Caller ID Devices | 14,000 | 8 | 6 | 560 | 4 | 7 | 392 | 3 | 8 |
| Answerers | 27,973 | 1,279 | 46 | 26,736 | 1,111 | 42 | 27,812 | 1,104 | 40 |
| Fax Machines* | 1,534 | 151 | 99 | 1,357 | 127 | 94 | 1,221 | 103 | 89 |
| MP3 Players | 24,812 | 4,229 | 170 | 33,000 | 5,062 | 153 | 38,250 | 5,638 | 147 |
| Headset portables (7) | 23,397 | 774 | 33 | 19,238 | 589 | 31 | 16,677 | 509 | 31 |
| Portable CD players | 17,072 | 576 | 34 | 13,273 | 405 | 31 | 10,964 | 334 | 30 |
| Total Tape (8) | 6,325 | 198 | 31 | 5,965 | 184 | 31 | 5,713 | 175 | 31 |
| Tape players | 690 | 13 | 19 | 790 | 11 | 14 | 628 | 8 | 13 |
| Tape Recorders | 5,635 | 185 | 33 | 5,175 | 173 | 33 | 5,085 | 167 | 33 |
| Total Digital Imaging | 28,491 | 7,315 | 257 | 31,260 | 8,058 | 258 | 31,911 | 7,995 | 251 |
| Digital Cameras | 23,249 | 5,611 | 241 | 26,699 | 6,413 | 240 | 27,543 | 6,461 | 235 |
| Camcorders (6) | 5,242 | 1,704 | 325 | 4,561 | 1,645 | 361 | 4,368 | 1,534 | 351 |
| Video Games | -- | 11,070 | -- | -- | 12,586 | -- | -- | 14,673 | -- |
| Hardware | -- | 3,029 | -- | -- | 3,580 | -- | -- | 4,587 | -- |
| Software | -- | 8,041 | -- | -- | 9,006 | -- | -- | 10,087 | -- |
| Wireless phones* | 104,500 | 13,585 | 130 | 122,304 | 17,123 | 140 | 124,750 | 18,214 | 146 |
| Pagers | -- | 525 | -- | -- | 400 | -- | -- | 298 | -- |
| Family Radio Svc. Devices | 12,550 | 168 | 13 | 11,295 | 158 | 14 | 10,165 | 128 | 13 |
| Personal Digital Assistants | 4,850 | 680 | 140 | 4,285 | 643 | 150 | 4,585 | 667 | 146 |
| Total autosound | -- | 6,588 | -- | -- | 6,843 | -- | -- | 7,685 | -- |
| Aftermarket | -- | 2,270 | -- | -- | 2,056 | -- | -- | 2,036 | -- |
| Original equipment | -- | 4,318 | -- | -- | 4,787 | -- | -- | 5,649 | -- |
| Mobile Video/Navigation Devices | -- | 552 | -- | -- | 679 | -- | -- | 789 | -- |
| Satellite Radios | -- | 447 | -- | -- | 432 | -- | -- | 470 | -- |
| Aftermkt. Car Security | -- | 253 | -- | -- | 250 | -- | -- | 249 | -- |
| Radar Detectors | -- | 118 | -- | -- | 116 | -- | -- | 114 | -- |
| Portable/Transportable Navigation | 707 | 349 | 494 | 1,328 | 622 | 468 | 2,124 | 817 | 385 |
| Accessories | -- | 3,268 | -- | -- | 3,987 | -- | -- | 4,984 | -- |
| Batteries (9) | -- | 5,902 | -- | -- | 6,020 | -- | -- | 6,140 | -- |
| Total Blank Media | -- | 5,704.00 | -- | -- | 6,128 | -- | -- | 7,844 | -- |
| Blank Cassettes* | 359,000 | 428 | -- | 302,000 | 382 | -- | 263,000 | 353 | -- |
| Audio | 96,000 | 51 | -- | 79,000 | 37 | -- | 63,000 | 27 | -- |
| Video | 263,000 | 377 | -- | 223,000 | 345 | -- | 200,000 | 326 | -- |
| PC Media* | -- | 2,189 | -- | -- | 1,966 | -- | -- | 2,249 | -- |
| Flash Media | -- | 3,087 | -- | -- | 3,780 | -- | -- | 5,242 | -- |
| >(1) TV combos with VCR, DVD. (2) Includes VHS combo models. (3) Includes home, portable and combination player/recorders. (4) DirectTv only (5) Includes word processors. (6) Includes analog and digital models. (7) Includes CD and tape. (8) Includes radio combinations. (9) Primary cells. *Sales through consumer channels. Source: CEA Mkt. Research ©TWICE 2006 | |||||||||
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